What the 2026 Election Means for Rural Landowners
OPINION: The farm policy on the table this election, what it could mean for land, and why the market you're in today still matters most
Data released last month by REINZ suggests the market is shaped by increased positivity and confidence, reflecting the combination of strong commodity prices, improved balance sheets, accessible credit, and a marked shift in public perception of the sector.
REINZ rural spokesperson Shane O’Brien says concerns remain regarding cost inflation for the rural sector, with tight on-farm operating costs.
“These pressures continue to weigh on overall sector confidence, prompting businesses across the rural economy to reassess budgets, adapt operating models and look for greater efficiency as they navigate a persistently challenging cost environment, in many sectors,” O’Brien says.
Dairy Farm Sales Surge Across Key Regions
The dairy sector has proven to be the standout performer with dairy sales increasing by 38.2% in the 12 months to March 2026.
Key regions, including Northland, Otago and Southland, were especially active with dairy confidence flowing through into broader provincial economies.
“Performance has been supported by strong farmgate returns, with demand clearly concentrated in tier-one properties,” O’Brien says.
He says that activity is driven primarily by largescale family businesses and farmer-to-farmer transactions.
Dairy Industry Leads Rural Market Recovery
According to REINZ’s report, while overall rural confidence has been at its highest since the 2008 Global Financial Crisis, dairy has proven to be the primary engine of that confidence.
“Buyers have re-engaged with the market following a more stable outlook from processors and improved liquidity from recent seasons – specifically in South Otago where market activity reached levels not seen in the last 7-8 years,” the report states.
The first quarter of 2026 recorded an increase of transactions, supported by strong underlying demand.
According to the REINZ analysis, in the 12 months to March 2026, there were more dairy farm sales exceeding $10 million than in any equivalent 12-month period since records began in 1997.
Buyers Focused on High-Performing Farms
“Buyers across New Zealand tend to prioritise farms that deliver consistent performance, with proven production, established infrastructure, and being environmentally compliant while most farming sectors have displayed varied activity this quarter,” O’Brien says.
The report says that seasonal conditions have generally been helpful to the dairy sector across New Zealand, supporting pasture growth and production, reducing pressure on supplementary feed and helping farms maintain output.
Inflation Pressures Continue to Challenge Farmers
However, the report states the main area of concern for the sector is cost inflation.
“Diesel prices initially raised concerns due to their immediate impact on production costs, but the flow-on impact, notably fertiliser prices, will continue to contribute to rising farm input costs,” the report states.
“Dairy support farms benefited from the strength of the broader dairy outlook, including recent Fonterra payouts and dairy expansion generally, all of which have translated into demand for support land in dairy-intensive regions.”
Looking ahead, the REINZ report says it will be interesting to see what impact the Fonterra capital payments have on the market.
“In the meantime, buyers remain very disciplined and focused on quality assets.”
