Wednesday, 28 January 2015 14:47

No drought yet but MPI keeping a close eye – Guy

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The Opuha Dam is feeling the effects of dry weather. The Opuha Dam is feeling the effects of dry weather.

The government is monitoring the impact of dry weather on farmers around the country. Minister for Primary Industries, Nathan Guy says he and his department are maintaining a ‘watching brief’.

 Last week Guy met with about 20 farmers at Mayfield near Ashburton in mid-Canterbury to hear their concerns; the group included Federated Farmers national president William Rolleston and board member Chris Allen, who hosted Guy on his farm.

Guy says the feedback was they were coping very well, but are concerned about what may lie ahead.

“They have experienced a lower that average rainfall over the last six months or so,” says Guy. “The alpine rivers are in reasonable shape because of the snow melt, but certainly the Opuha dam relies on easterly rain and there hasn’t been a lot so they have got little over a month of storage left. There are already restrictions in place there.”

Guy says the farmers realised it was going to be a tough year and made early decisions in terms of de-stocking and selling cull stock.  

“No one is asking for a drought declaration - they will meet at the end of the month and work through that and have further discussions. MPI has got a well-trodden policy framework about how those decisions are made,” he says.

Guy says NIWA data shows North Otago, parts of  Marlborough and the Wairarapa and a bit of Northland are also pretty dry. It will take quite a bit of rain to turn that situation around.

“It is earlier than normal for this dry period to bite,” he says. “We can expect these dry conditions into February but to have them in the third week of January is pretty unusual. Talking to farmers at the meeting they think this a 10 or 20 year event in Canterbury and it’s not at the stage where it is major one, but we are watching it closely.”

With the projected low milk payout, Guy says he’s asked the Rural Support Trust and MPI to monitor the situation closely. He wants to make sure farmers and their families know where to turn for support. The Rural Support Trusts are the obvious people to contact because they have the local institutional knowledge.

“They can sit around the kitchen table and talk through issues with farming families and help them make some tough decisions they may have ahead of them,” he says.

‘Be ready for crunch time’

DairyNZ is planning a series of events starting in late February to help farmers through the ‘crunch’ period.

General manager extension Craig McBeth says with dry conditions in many parts of the country and the low farmgate milk price, farmers need to start planning for later in the year.

Right now farmers need to take into account the lower pay-out when making any decisions on their farms, he says. But the really big decisions are still in front of them.

“So it’s about how do I set myself up profitably through this coming winter and next season,” McBeth says. “That’s about doing the fundamentals well, having good pastures cover and calving cows at the right body condition score. It’s also managing their farms well and good expenditure so that every dollar that’s spent has a return of at least a $1.50-$2. This is a smart way of operating as opposed to saying I am going to cut all expenditure out or I will buy more supplement because it is getting dry. But if you only get 75 cents back for every dollar spent, that’s not very economic.”

McBeth says the seminars and events will focus on the tougher cash flow periods that lie ahead for farmers. The objective will be to encourage farmers to understand their situation and come up with options on how to develop and implement an effective strategy to get them through.

With many parts of the country in near drought conditions, DairyNZ will be having weekly conference calls to monitor conditions. McBeth says the east coast of the country especially around Canterbury has been harder hit than any other place.

“The effect on farming here will be highly dependent on the ability of farmers to irrigate their land,” he says. “Those farmers who are supplied by the Opuha dam (Canterbury) are finding it quite a bit tougher because they have been on irrigation restrictions for some time and they look like continuing and getting more severe. The South Wairarapa is getting dry but it is January of course.” 

McBeth says if it doesn’t rain, there will be a rapid decline of pasture growth. 

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