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A wide range for the new season's forecast milk price reflects the volatile global market.
Fonterra farmers start the new season this week on a high note.
Last week the co-operative announced its 2022/23 opening forecast farmgate milk price, set at a range of $8.25 - $9.75/kgMS, with a midpoint of $9/kgMS.
The co-op is maintaining its 2021-22 forecast price of $9.10 - $9.50/kgMS. At a midpoint of $9.30/kgMS, this would be the highest forecast milk price in the co-op's history.
Chief executive Miles Hurrell says this would see the co-op contribute almost $14 billion into the New Zealand economy through milk price payments.
Dairy prices have eased in recent Global Dairy Trade (GDT) auction, however prices are expected to remain at historically high levels due to subdued supply and surging demand.
China's recent lockdowns of cities hit by Omicron has created a dip in demand but this is expected to be short lived.
Hurrell says the strong opening forecast reflects continued demand for dairy coupled with contstrained global supply.
"The long-term outlook for dairy remains positive, despite recent geopolitical and Covid-19 related events impacting global demand in the short-term.
"On the supply side, growth from key milk producing regions is expected to remain constrained as high feed, fertiliser and energy costs continue to impact production volumes.
"These demand and supply dynamics are expected to support dairy prices in the medium to long-term."
But Hurrell warns that we are in an increasingly volatile global environment and are managing a wider range of risks than usual.
This includes the potential for further impacts from Covid-19, financial markets and foreign exchange volatility, global inflationary pressures, a tightening labour market, increasing interest rates, geopolitical events, as well as the possible impact on demand from higher dairy prices.
"This is why our 2022-23 forecast range is so wide at this point in the season," he adds.
OPINION: There is zero chance that someone who joined Fonterra as a lobbyist, then served as a general manager of Fonterra's nutrient management programme, and sat on the board of Export NZ, a division of lobbyist group Business New Zealand, doesn't understand that local butter (and milk and cheese) prices are set by the international commodity price.
Kiwis love their butter, and that's great because New Zealand produces some of the best butter in the world. But when the price of butter goes up, it's tough for some, particularly when many other grocery staples have also gone up and the heat goes on co-operative Fonterra, the country's main butter maker. Here the co-op explains why butter prices are so high right now.
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