increase font size
Provision of more shade and shelter will be needed on pastoral farms.
New research reveals how pastoral farm systems will likely be impacted by climate change.
Pasture production is projected to increase slightly over the next 80 years, with a shift in production towards spring and away from late summer, says the new climate change research, focused on impacts on farm systems.
The research findings suggest that pastoral farmers will probably see a small increase in overall pasture production in many regions of the country, due to increased carbon dioxide encouraging plant growth.
But this will come with a shift in production towards wetter springs and away from dryer late summers.
Higher temperatures will pose a greater risk to livestock production, with more days where heat stress may occur.
The research partnership between two National Science Challenges, Our Land and Water and the Deep South Challenge: Changing with our Climate, will help scientists, regional councils and industry bodies understand the potential impacts of climate change on pastoral, arable and horticultural farm systems, and identify appropriate adaptation measures.
Analysis with two models both gave consistent results for the slight increase in pasture production and shift in seasons for growth.
The report also identified for dairy, sheep and beef that heat stress will be an increased risk for animal health, with about two additional weeks of risk for moderate heat stress by the 2090s, and a more pronounced risk of severe heat stress.
Provision of more shade and shelter will be needed.
“Pastoral farmers, sector bodies and regional councils should prepare for increased frequencies of severe heat and summer drought,” the report says.
“Nitrate leaching will be higher and more variable. The most noticeable increase modelled was in the Southland case study, where annual leaching was modelled to increase significantly due to more spring rain and more frequent extreme rainfall events.”
More research is needed to confirm the trend. In the Hawke’s Bay case study, year-to-year variability was most extreme in free draining soil.
The report says for the arable sector change may have minimal effects on maize yields (except for a slight increase in Hawke’s Bay) if crop management is adapted to reduce risks of yield loss.
“For example, maize crops may be sown earlier in spring to minimise negative impacts on yield caused by faster reproductive development that shortens the crop cycle.
“Earlier sowing dates will enable the use of long-cycle maize hybrids for additional growth period, or the earlier establishment of autumn-sown crops such as wheat, forage oats and Italian ryegrass for additional winter production.”
The report says pressure on fresh water is likely to increase.
With much of the North Island experiencing drought this summer and climate change projected to bring drier and hotter conditions, securing New Zealand’s freshwater resilience is vital, according to state-owned GNS Science.
There has been a bit of discussion in the media lately about the Paris climate agreement and whether New Zealand should withdraw from it.
OPINION: We've been having constructive conversations with the Government recently around climate change and emissions from food production, but now is the time to see these conversations turn into action.
New Zealand farmers know that pastoral fortunes can shift rapidly once summer’s extreme dryness gives way to cooler, wetter autumn conditions.
Beef and Lamb New Zealand (B+LNZ) chair Kate Acland says it’s not in red meat farmers’ interests to leave the Paris Agreement on climate change.
Recent rain has offered respite for some from the ongoing drought.
New Zealand's TBfree programme has made great progress in reducing the impact of the disease on livestock herds, but there’s still a long way to go, according to Beef+Lamb NZ.
With much of the North Island experiencing drought this summer and climate change projected to bring drier and hotter conditions, securing New Zealand’s freshwater resilience is vital, according to state-owned GNS Science.
OPINION: Otago farmer and NZ First MP Mark Patterson is humble about the role that he’s played in mandating government agencies to use wool wherever possible in new and refurbished buildings.
For Wonky Box co-founder Angus Simms, the decision to open the service to those in rural areas is a personal one.
The golden age of orcharding in West Auckland was recently celebrated at the launch of a book which tells the story of its rise, then retreat in the face of industry change and urban expansion.
OPINION: Should Greenpeace be stripped of their charitable status? Farmers say yes.
OPINION: After years of financial turmoil, Canterbury milk processor Synlait is now back in business.
