DairyNZ lifts breakeven milk price forecast to $8.68 for 2025/26 season
According to DairyNZ's latest Econ Tracker update, there has been a rise in the forecast breakeven milk price for the 2025/26 season.
A report released this morning at the National Fieldays, Mystery Creek shows dairy farmer confidence growing, but challenges remain.
DairyNZ’s View from the Cowshed report states that farmers are feeling proud and increasingly positive about the future of their sector. High farm expenses and regulatory compliance impacts top the list of concerns.
The nationwide survey of dairy farmers reveals that nearly 85% are proud to work in the sector, and over three-quarters believe the outlook for dairying will remain stable or improve over the next three years - signaling a lift in confidence despite ongoing challenges.
DairyNZ chief executive Campbell Parker says the findings paint a picture of a sector that is passionate, resilient and progressive.
“What stands out clearly is farmers’ pride in their work and their deep commitment to animal welfare, environmental stewardship and their communities,” says Campbell.
“Even as farmers face increasing demands from consumers and markets, they are stepping up, demonstrating adaptability and a clear focus on long-term sustainability.”
While confidence and pride are evident, the report also highlights key areas of concern.
Rising farm expenses - particularly for feed and fertiliser - was the top challenge for individual farmers, closely followed by regulatory compliance impacts. At a sector level, the need for greater long-term regulatory certainty emerged as the most pressing issue, with many farmers wanting clearer, more practical and enduring rules.
“Like many New Zealanders, farmers are feeling the pressure from persistently higher costs of doing business, which directly affects day-to-day operations,” says Campbell.
“We also know that regulatory certainty remains a significant concern for dairy farmers. We hear those concerns. That’s why we’re actively working across the sector and with local and central governments to advocate for practical, enduring, evidence-based solutions that work for farmers.”
Environmental and climate-related challenges also remain a top priority for farmers. Many are seeking better access to tools that will help reduce their environmental footprint and are asking for fit-for-purpose regulations that support real progress on-farm.
“To help meet these challenges, DairyNZ invests in critical areas to support profitability and sustainability such as animal care, pasture resilience, animal genetic gain, water quality, and robust biosecurity,” says Campbell.
“There is a lot to balance. But with the right science, support, and relationships - grounded in evidence and trust - we believe the future is bright for the sector, for farmers, for rural communities, and for all New Zealanders who benefit from their hard work.
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