2020s: The Decade of Uncertainty?

In 2022, on the back of shortage and supply chain uncertainty, we saw unprecedented demand for New Zealand wine – one winery described it, late in the year, as “Xmas every month”.

In 2023, we saw the flipside of the demand coin, with a second large vintage in a row; with inflation high and supply chain destocking underway, New Zealand wine sales fell sharply. In 2024, despite having wine available, sales continued to drop, reaching their recent low point in December 2024, over 50 million litres below their peak in April 2023. This was easily the biggest fall in our wine sales in a generation, probably ever.

Then in 2025, the world trade rules were upended by the United States, and a 15% tariff was imposed on exports to our largest market. That means $100 million of extra cost is being met somewhere in the supply chain, from wineries through to the final customer.

If all that was not enough, in the first half of the decade our industry also experienced multiple extreme weather events, sluggish economies, rapid changes in markets and the challenges imposed by the current surplus situation. So, going into 2026, completely unsurprisingly, members were looking for more certainty. Unfortunately, that wish now seems
very faint.

In the past month, the US-Iran conflict has burst onto the scene, upending global share markets, disrupting global supply chains, and potentially threatening a new burst of inflation and consumer uncertainty. On that basis, 2026 looks as though it will continue the theme of uncertainty that so far has been the hallmark of the 2020s.

New Zealand Winegrowers’ response to the conflict has been multifaceted. As is usual in such disruptions, the government has contacted us, seeking information about the impact on growers, wineries and the wider sector. That has prompted us, in turn, to contact providers of goods and services to the industry, to understand the impact of the conflict on fuel, agrichemicals, packaging and dry goods, shipping, and insurance services. We are providing all that information back to the Ministry for Primary Industries, along with all our colleagues in the rest of the primary and exporting sectors, which will help the government understand and frame their response to this new crisis.

We are also providing information to members on the conflict and the potential impact on grape and wine businesses. We have established a dedicated webpage and will provide updates as necessary. That webpage provides key information on matters such as the National Fuel Plan, and links to key government and other sources of information.

It is anybody’s guess as to how long the current conflict will continue. But what is almost certain is that the longer it goes on, the bigger the impacts will be. Significant increases in fuel, shipping and insurance costs are already happening, so there will surely be others in coming months.

One of the overriding concerns at the moment is the availability and cost of fuel. Government Ministers are making reassuring noises, which is good, but any shortage will have significant implications for our sector, as well as across the economy as a whole. Reassuringly, the Government has a pre-existing National Fuel Plan with alert levels that they can adjust as needed (similar to the Covid-19 response) to manage fuel issues. As of 17 March 2026, New Zealand is currently at Alert Level 1 (the lowest level). At higher levels, there may be prioritisation for ‘critical customers’. As NZW did with Covid-19, we will engage with government on the industry’s needs and what winegrowers require in order to be able to operate. Importantly, the criteria for ‘critical customers’ includes reference to agriculture and activities of significant economic export value. We would expect that to include the grape and wine industry, given we are the country’s seventh largest export good.

One piece of advice in the current situation is to communicate openly, and frequently, with the key suppliers of goods and services to your business. Without information from you, they will only be able to guess at your needs for goods and services – whether it be fuel, sprays, shipping containers or whatever – in coming months.

So for the moment it looks as though we are stuck with a new dimension of uncertainty – just what growers and wineries did not need in 2026. In such circumstances, planning for the worst and hoping for the best is probably a good mantra to adopt.

All the best for the balance of vintage.