Editorial: Fireworks or damp squib?

It comes a little later than normal and just a couple of days after Guy Fawkes - the celebration to blow up the British parliament in 1605. So, what are we likely to see in the coming months? Will the campaign be boring or will there be fireworks unlimited in the race to gain the treasury benches?

This election is very hard to call and the most astute pundits are keeping their powder dry on who the winner or winners might be. National are the traditional farmers’ party and in the current Government the rural voice is the strongest it’s been for years. One would imagine that the RMA and associated reforms will see rural voters stick with the status quo. But elections are not won in rural NZ – rather they are won in the large population centres, in particular Auckland.

So where to from here? The personalities of Luxon and Hipkins will be a significant factor in the campaign, along with their respective policies and the performance their key spokespeople and coalition partners.

Luxon may have a problem with the pay equity issue and potentially women voters. The economy and cost of living will be high on the agenda of voters. On the plus side, National’s coalition partners seem relatively stable, but who knows what antics Winston Peters and David Seymour will get up to during the campaign.

Which raises the issue for Labour and its potential coalition partners. Expect the Green Party or far left vote to stay pretty much where it is. Then there’s Te Pati Maori – say no more. The thought of them being in coalition with Labour will surely be a big turn-off for many voters.

Expect Luxon to warn of the dangers of Labour’s coalition partners, especially TPM, and Hipkins to chip away at National’s economic performance. This election is likely to be a photo finish.