Ag sector is here to stay

The exact date, geographical location, bank balance, schedules, milk price and ideas might have changed a bit, but overall, for most people, we’ll still be ‘here’ and doing our best.

Doing our best means looking for ways that we can achieve improvements all the time. This fits with New Year resolutions for most people. We’re going to get fitter, lose weight, eat in a healthier fashion, be kinder to those around us, find ways to save more money, spend more time with friends and family… Generally, our intention is to improve.

For most people, good intentions about diet and exercise evaporate in the face of the reallife pressures of work. The energy that it takes to make the change is expended in the business of generating income. And farming, in the words of Colleen McCullough (admittedly writing about Australia), takes energy and devotion.

This energy and devotion, focused as it has been on the land, is part of what has given New Zealand the agricultural edge. Everybody in New Zealand has benefitted and will continue to benefit in the future.

The economic recovery predicted for 2025 has already been hung on the rural sector.

At the end of last year, Susan Edmonds from RNZ talked with several economists on the topic of ‘survive until 2025 – and now what?’

Chief economist at Westpac, Kelly Eckhold, responded that regional New Zealand would probably feel the recovery first: “The strong milk payout combined with less cost pressure for farmers would be good for agriculture and regional economies”.

Mike Jones of BNZ also pointed to dairy incomes as a building block for improved economic performance.

Brad Olsen, Infometrics chief economist agreed. “Regions have got a very good milk payout coming through that will add billions more than originally expected into the economy in terms of spending.” Add meat and horticulture and “all those factors combined suggest regions might help lead the recovery as we head through to next year”.

News of overseas trends is also encouraging. Meat is regaining popularity and plant-based ‘milks’ aren’t quite what was first thought.

The meat announcements reflect a desire for fresh food and an increasing distrust of ultra-processed foods. Just after Christmas the headline “New research links plant-based meat to depression” appeared based on research from the University of Surrey. Reading the actual research (published in Food Frontiers), rather than the press release, the evidence is about markers in vegetarian volunteers, and careful use of the word ‘might’. The research conclusion was that “while no clear health risks or benefits were associated with plantbased meat alternatives (PBMA) consumption in vegetarians, the higher risk of depression, elevated CRP (C-reactive protein), and lower apolipoprotein A levels in PBMA consumers suggest potential inflammatory concerns that warrant further investigation”.

More research is necessary…

The headline ‘might’ be enough to put people off large intakes of PBMA, though different reports have suggested that price and lack of flavour and texture have already had a negative impact.

Another headline in favour of real food appeared just before Christmas: “Does processing reduce nutrients in plant-based milks?” The actual research (published in Food Research International) reported that “essential amino acid (EAA) levels were found lower in all plant-based milk alternatives (PBMAs), impacting their nutritional quality”. The ‘milks’ were examined for products from the Maillard reaction which decreases nutritional availability and can result in acrylamide (a known human carcinogen). They detected acrylamide in almond and some of the oat drink samples, ‘likely due to the roasting of the raw materials in the production of these drinks’.

Again, the researchers stated that their research was not exhaustive, and more is required. They assured the readers that regulatory bodies set safety guidelines but warned that “gaps exist in the application of these regulations to emerging food technologies and novel ingredients”.

Food safety and quality assurance in New Zealand is high, so the alerts on plantbased alternatives to natural foods are simply increasing awareness. But overseas, they are being taken seriously.

Overall, the global trends are towards the protein and natural foods that New Zealand produces.

This means that the auguries are good.

The fact that the economists are supporting our role is also extremely important. Kelly Eckhold has said that “The most positive thing for the economy is the primary sector...”

This is the message to keep hammering to all policy makers whether in national or local government.

In 12 months’ time they will or won’t have listened and might or might not be still in office. But the rural sector will have gone on producing excellent food, doing its best to ‘do better’ whilst knowing that the future is here and now.

Dr Jacqueline Rowarth, Adjunct Professor Lincoln University, has an honours degree in Environmental agriculture, a PhD in Soil Science and is on the board of directors of DairyNZ, Deer Industry NZ and Ravensdown.