Risky business
OPINION: In the same way that even a stopped clock is right twice a day, economists sometimes get it right.
Ian Proudfoot is trying to move the conversation away from the doom and gloom of the dairy sector and to focus more on the other primary sectors performing well at present. He also wants people to look out 20 years and get a sense of the huge opportunities that will open up for NZ.
Proudfoot believes the fallout from the present dairy crisis will not be as bad as many commentators are saying. He says while it will affect people directly involved in servicing the dairy sector, he doesn’t think the effects will be as drastic as some people suggest.
In long term, he says, the beef industry has the potential to be the biggest export category because there is a bigger world market for it. He believes the time is now right to look at a vision for 2035.
“By that time NZ will be earning $100b in export revenue. To me beef and veal is the biggest category and the dominant category,” he told Rural News.
The kiwifruit industry is singled out by Proudfoot as having made a remarkable recovery, for example, the value of the Zespri model. He says the investment in G3 Gold enabled this new variety of kiwifruit to be commercialised quickly, which helped turn the industry around.
Proudfoot says for the last two years KPMG has been putting out the message that farming systems, now deeply in debt, need flexibility in their systems to cope when times get tough. He says farmers who have developed good governance structures and have thought about risk will recover from any crisis better than those living from hand to mouth.
