Policies must add up to achieve climate goals - Carr

"The Government has choices about how to meet the country’s climate goals. We all have a role to play, but policies that support reducing climate pollution provide clarity to businesses, communities and households and open up better choices for us all,” Carr says.

"While there will be opportunities, there will also be challenges. Support for people and communities will be important to ensure New Zealanders have what they need to navigate the changes the country needs to make. We are all in this together, so the Government needs to partner with iwi/Māori and collaborate with business and communities," he explains.

His comments come after Minister of Climate Change Simon Watts released the Commission's final advice to inform the Government’s plan to meet New Zealand’s greenhouse gas reduction targets for 2026-2030.

Watts says the National-led government will take the actions required to deliver on the climate goals.

“We will now consider the Commission's recommendations as we prepare the second emissions reduction plan.

“New Zealanders want actions, not words, on reducing our emissions and the Government is already getting these actions underway,” Watts says.

While the Commission’s analysis shows the country has made progress, it reveals that New Zealand is not yet on track to meet its climate goals for the end of this decade. This risks missing out on potential benefits like new jobs, a more resilient economy and healthier communities.

The Commission’s advice makes a total of 27 recommendations to the Government, focused on areas where there are critical gaps in action, or where efforts need to be strengthened or accelerated. This includes:

• Building more renewable energy, such as solar, wind, and geothermal energy, and ensure networks keep up with growing and variable demand.
• Encouraging households and businesses to switch to electric vehicles.
• Preparing for the rapid roll-out of low emissions technologies and practices on farms.
• Sorting out the New Zealand Emissions Trading Scheme and the role of forests.
• Committing to how much climate pollution must be cut at its source.

Between 2026 and 2030, the country needs to reduce its climate pollution by the equivalent of 43.5 megatonnes of carbon dioxide – the equivalent of what 3.6 million cars would produce in the same period. The Commission says that approximately 40% of the cuts are expected to come from energy and industry.

"The biggest opportunity is to replace fossil fuels - like coal, gas and petrol - with renewable energy, to power our industries, our buildings and our transport systems,” Carr says. “This is a critical step where, in many cases, investments made now in energy efficiency, electric vehicles, and renewable energy will more than pay for themselves in the long term.”

According to the Commission’s analysis, replacing fossil fuels with renewable energy in areas like heating and transport could save Kiwi businesses and households close to $2 billion each year by 2040.

“If we act now on reducing climate pollution, we can avoid additional costs and disruption as the country tries to catch-up on its climate goals in the years ahead,” Carr says.

“For example, to meet our climate goals we need a big reduction in climate pollution from transport in the early 2030s, but this relies on more people replacing their petrol and diesel cars with EVs this decade."

From next year, the Commission will independently assess and publicly report on how the country is tracking against emissions budgets and how well emissions reduction plans are being delivered.

"Whatever the mix of policies the Government decides on for the second emissions reduction plan, they must add-up to meet our immediate climate goals and keep the country on the path to net zero," Carr says.

The Government has until the end of 2024 to consider the advice, consult on policies to meet the country’s emissions budgets and release the emissions reduction plan for 2026-2030.