"Further rate hikes unlikely"
According to Rabobank, inflation expectations in the New Zealand economy are headed in the right direction, with interest rate relief on the cards for the second half of 2024.
Economists are suddenly divided over whether the official cash rate will rise this afternoon.
Whereas a day ago, a hike was expected by all major analysts, some have now shifted to an on-hold decision.
Reserve Bank will deliver its monetary policy statement at 2pm.
Westpac head of NZ strategy Imre Speizer says yesterday’s sudden Covid-related lockdown has changed sentiment.
Westpac’s economists argue that regardless of the economic case for higher interest rates, there is nothing to be gained from pushing the OCR higher now, rather than waiting for more clarity on the Covid situation, says Speizer.
Market pricing for today has fallen from a 100% chance of a hike (as at yesterday morning) to 60% currently. “We struggle to construct a plausible RBNZ scenario which would cause no market reaction.
“Thus, on this occasion, we present only two scenarios. “A 25bp hike would indicate the hawkish resolve of the RBNZ, and cause swap rates and the NZD to rise. An on-hold decision would elicit the opposite reaction to the above, but the declines would be limited by an expectation that tightening has merely been delayed.”
Analysis by Dunedin-based Techion New Zealand shows the cost of undetected drench resistance in sheep has exploded to an estimated $98 million a year.
Shipping disruption caused by Houthi rebels in the Red Sea has so far not impacted fertiliser prices or supply on farm.
The opportunity to spend more time on farm while providing a dedicated service for shareholders attracted new environmental manager Ben Howden to work for Waimakariri Irrigation Limited (WIL).
Federated Farmers claims that the Otago Regional Council is charging ahead unnecessarily with piling more regulation on rural communities.
Dairy sheep and goat farmers are being told to reduce milk supply as processors face a slump in global demand for their products.
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