El Niño Spring Outlook: What to Expect in Five NZ Regions
El Niño has officially been with us for several weeks now, and late winter and early September have given us a taste of what is to come.
"NIWA has released a report last week confirming that El Nino will definitely continue at least over the next three months, and is likely to intensify and peak over the summer," says Guy.
"This is likely to mean less rainfall in the north and east, which is tough for farmers in Canterbury, Otago and Marlborough who are already feeling the effects of an extended drought.
"The planning that farmers and growers have carried out in anticipation of this has been very worthwhile.
"Talking to people in different parts of the country, it's clear that many are working with advisors – vets, banks, other farmers – and putting their plans into action. Many have been making decisions with trigger points for certain actions or events – such as starting to destock, or planning alternative feed sources.
Guy says many farmers have lived through the impacts of El Nino previously and have a good idea of what to expect.
"They know that even as it peaks this summer, the knock-on effects such as availability of winter feed also have to be considered now."
Guy says a wide range of support and advice is available, including practical advice on issues like crop planning and animal management, to talking about financial decisions and other options.
"An example is North Canterbury farmers sending stock to western North Island districts for grazing and sharefarming.
"Additional funding is available for mental health support and farmers are encouraged to ask for help to get through the season, and make time to look after their families, neighbours and themselves."
While some of the country is relatively dry, Gisborne and Hawke's Bay have higher soil moisture levels than normal. El Nino typically brings more rain to the west of the country, and more frequent extreme events such as storms and flooding.
"The importance of irrigation has been highlighted again, this time by the Reserve Bank Governor who noted last week that it means Canterbury may not be as hard hit as in 1997/98."
