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MPI’S director of sector policy Jarred Mair says despite the short term downturn, the fundamentals for the New Zealand primary sector remain very strong.
In its latest Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI), MPI predicts export revenue from the primary sector will rise from their estimated low for 2015 of $35.2 billion to $41.3b by 2019.
Mair puts this confidence down to population growth in our key export markets in South East Asia and says it could also be helped when the TPP is finalised. He adds that NZ is in a strong position because of its largely grass-based production system and its reputation as producer of quality food.
While dairy accounts for 40% of primary exports, Mair says NZ is not overly dependent on it as the country has a strong mix of other primary products. Though the Chinese market is challenging, South East Asian markets are strongly resurgent and there are new opportunities in Africa.
“Where there are big impacts in a global sense we will be exposed because we are predominantly an export nation. We are in a transition period, moving from a commodity base to higher value product, be that through ingredients or consumer products.”
Mair says this is probably the biggest trend MPI has seen in the last two years and one that will continue for the next two three years.
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