University of Waikato research reveals 2050 drought threats
New research could help farmers prepare for a future where summer rainfall is increasingly unpredictable and where drought risk is rising, no matter what.
“But we want to be there because we know if it goes on longer it will be harder to maintain that resilience,” she says.
She was pleased to see a timely drought declaration.
“We discovered when we did our reviews that if you wait until you’re in a desperate situation it is a lot harder to react quickly,” she says.
“It does not mean we haven’t been doing anything leading up to it; the rural sector groups and the rural support trusts have all been out there making sure things are in place.
“But for the Rural Support Trust the drought declaration means we are able to act that much more quickly.”
Dairy farmers are coming out of a period of low payout.
“They don’t have the reserves they would have after several good seasons or even several average seasons,” Jonkers explained.
“It must be the same for farmers in other areas, like Hawkes Bay. They are all in the same boat. We try to more quickly get packages in place.”
One young couple she spoke to said they were hoping to pay off debt this season, but they have had to use reserves to buy in feed. But they were still upbeat.
The Rural Support Trust is starting weekly teleconferences to keep ahead of the situation so if things get worse they are front-footing it.
The Northland trust has 10 drought barbecues coming up from February 20-28.
There has not been a big reaction to the drought declaration.
“It is not as if there is suddenly monetary help – the only thing that will help is rain – significant rain for a period of time,” she says.
But with the declaration she knows that the banks, service industries and other service providers will give what assistance they can. With some contracts the drought clause can be invoked which gives them a little leeway so they can better talk with the contractor.
“Those sorts of things help. Other than that there is the underlying support we hopefully can give – one-on-one support; people are bit overwhelmed.”
Drought declaration “is not a magic bullet” says Jonkers.
“But it allows us hopefully to do some extra work. It is the signal that we recognise it is not just a normal dry summer in Northland, that it is over and above a normal dry summer.
“It is this jolly south-westerly wind which just keeps blowing – even at night-time. It is drying out so quickly.”
If farmers are unclear about anything they should give the Rural Support Trust a ring “because hopefully we will have that information at our fingertips,” she says.
It is also setting up a feed register with Federated Farmers.
