Wednesday, 03 July 2013 11:49

‘Limited’ drift down in prices: Rabobank

Written by 

New Zealand's dairy producers are gearing up for a better season on the back of higher commodity prices, according to a visiting dairy analyst.

Rabobank's Australian-based senior dairy analyst Michael Harvey is touring the North Island this week and meeting with dairy farmers to discuss what's in store for the coming months.

"Milk production will return to growth in key export regions in late 2013, as farmers in the Southern Hemisphere get a crack at farm gate milk prices 20 to 33% higher than 12 months prior, and all farmers see a substantial reduction in the cost of bought in feed," Harvey says.

"Prices are likely to drift down, as some demand is 'choked off' in emerging markets and buyers at least see a new season commencing in the Southern Hemisphere, but the shift will be limited."

Speaking at Rabobank functions in Carterton, Hamilton, Putaruru, Morrinsville, Waihi, and Whakatane this week, Harvey says weather conditions have improved markedly through March and April with virtually all key dairying regions in New Zealand experiencing good rainfall and mild temperatures.

"Production will then edge marginally above prior year levels as the season builds, with the benefits of a slightly larger herd and the ability to buy feed, offsetting mixed cow conditions and low feed reserves," he says.

"Looking at the global situation, from early 2014 we should see a stronger supply response from most major dairy exporters, and this will create bounce in export product availability and provide relief from extreme shortages."

Following his tour, Harvey will release his latest research report on the South East Asian dairy industry titled, 'Dairy – Milk for the ASEAN-6 tigers'.

The report highlights that dairy consumption growth has been outpacing local supply growth in the six ASEAN countries (Indonesia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Thailand, Singapore and Malaysia) which is creating substantial trade opportunities for dairy export countries, like New Zealand.

More like this

Featured

Farmers urged not to be complacent about TB

New Zealand's TBfree programme has made great progress in reducing the impact of the disease on livestock herds, but there’s still a long way to go, according to Beef+Lamb NZ.

Editorial: Making wool great again

OPINION: Otago farmer and NZ First MP Mark Patterson is humble about the role that he’s played in mandating government agencies to use wool wherever possible in new and refurbished buildings.

National

Lame stories from a country vet

Everyone from experienced veterinarians and young professionals to the Wormwise programme and outstanding clinics have been recognised in this year’s…

Machinery & Products

Amazone extends hoe range

With many European manufacturers releasing mechanical weeding systems to counter the backlash around the use and possible banning of agrochemicals,…

Gong for NH dealers

New Holland dealers from around Australia and New Zealand came together last month for the Dealer of the Year Awards,…

A true Kiwi ingenuity

The King Cobra raingun continues to have a huge following in the New Zealand market and is also exported to…

» Latest Print Issues Online

Milking It

Greenpeace a charity?

OPINION: Should Greenpeace be stripped of their charitable status? Farmers say yes.

Synlait's back

OPINION: After years of financial turmoil, Canterbury milk processor Synlait is now back in business.

» Connect with Dairy News

» eNewsletter

Subscribe to our weekly newsletter