Warm, early spring forecast

Nevertheless, cold snaps, frost and snow conditions will still occur in many areas from time to time, as is typical of this time of year. Sea surface temperatures are also forecast to be above average along the east coast of New Zealand and further offshore, with conditions close to average to the west and in the Tasman Sea.

Rainfall for the August–October is forecast to be normal or above normal in the east and north of the North Island and the west of the South Island, while normal or below normal rainfall is likely for the west of the North Island and the north of the South Island.

Normal rainfall is expected for the east of the South Island. Soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be normal or below normal in the north of the South Island and the west of the North Island, normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island as well as the west of the South Island. Normal soil moisture levels and river flows are forecast for the east of the South Island.

The equatorial Pacific Ocean remains in a neutral state (neither El Niño nor La Niña) despite some patterns reminiscent of a weak La Niña. International guidance indicates that neutral conditions are the most likely outcome over the coming three months.

Higher pressures than normal are forecast south of the country, while lower pressures than normal are expected to the north over Australia and the Coral Sea. This circulation pattern is expected to produce a weaker than normal westerly flow over New Zealand.