Wednesday, 31 October 2012 16:55

Warm, dry for the north?

Written by Pamela Tipa

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Early summer temperatures are expected to be average or above average range in the north and east of the North Island, but near average in other regions, say Niwa in its seasonal outlook.

Rainfall is likely to be near normal or below normal in all North Island regions and in Nelson-Marlborough, but near normal in other South Island regions.

Soil moisture and river flows are forecast to follow the same regional pattern as rainfall, except that soil moisture levels are likely to be below normal in the north of the North Island, and both soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be below normal in the east of the North Island.

Oceanic indicators in the west and central tropical Pacific remain close to El Niño thresholds, but the atmosphere has yet to show any significant response to the warmer than normal sea surface temperatures.

The global forecast models indicate an approximately 50:50 chance of neutral versus weak El Niño conditions over the next three months. In the New Zealand region, lower than normal pressures are expected southeast of the Chatham Islands, with weakly enhanced south-westerly winds over New Zealand.

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