Supply, demand balance will lead to better red meat pricing

He told Rural News he's optimistic that overall farmgate returns in the coming year will be more favourable than they have been the past 12 to 18 months.

The company is now in the middle of a series of farmer roadshows and Boulton says farmers generally share his optimism, are buoyed about what they are hearing and have a bit more spring in their step.

“We have come off the floor. North America is going to be very short of beef for the next couple of years. The big supply dynamics that we saw from South America and Australia are forecast to ease, and in the UK, lamb is in short supply and there will be some favourable gains in that space as well,” he says.

Boulton says this all points to a better balance in supply and demand which will lead to better pricing. He says, on top of that, the foundational work that SFF has done investing in their strategy, including in sustainability, is coming to the fore. He says this is resonating positively with SFF’s big corporate customers where there is value to be had. He says these initiatives are paying dividends and adds that their own survey shows they have record farmer loyalty, strong customer satisfaction and a high degree of positivity from company staff. Boulton says a key message to farmers right now is to make sure they book their stock in early and liaise closely with their livestock reps.

He says in his recent travels up the east coast of the North Island there are signs of drought and similar conditions emerging in the Waikato, King Country and the east coast of the South Island.

So far it’s been a slow start to the season and one of the quietist procurement supply windows for many years. He says this has led to challenges getting enough stock to the works and market.

Read More

• Positive vibes from China

• Meat sector unity

• Unlocking the 'green goldmine'

The result has been good prices for bull and cow beef and even prime lambs. But he warns that this may change quickly once the season gets into full swing.

He says while SFF has been going through a quiet period, they have used this time to recruit and train some of the 1000 workers they need for the season.

“This is not unusual to previous years, but we have had to manage shifts so that we don’t have empty hooks,” he says.

But with the prospect of drier weather, Boulton is predicting a stronger finish to 2024 and one that will exceed previous seasons.

“Livestock flows are often determined by the weather and those signals of westerly winds and a dry east coast where lambs are doing pretty well will come into play. We are forecasting lambs to come forward earlier than we have seen before, so we are telling farmers to get their bookings in early to a avoid a jam up going into Christmas.”