increase font size
Jarred Mair.
New Zealand's primary exports will be down slightly next year, but will quickly pick up in 2018.
That’s the word from the Ministry for Primary Industries in its half yearly situation and outlook report, which states that for the 2017 year exports will be $36.7 billion – a drop of just $0.3b.
MPI’s director of sector policy, Jarred Mair, says this drop is due to falls in lamb and beef production combined with weak global meat prices. While dairy prices will rise by just 3%, production will be down by 1.7%.
But the good news comes in 2018, when primary sector exports will be up by 12.5% to $41.2b and will continue to rise over the following three years, reaching $47.9b by 2012.
MPI says much of this rise will be due to the dairy industry coming back on track after years in the doldrums. By 2021, export earnings from dairy will be $20.6b, while meat and wool exports will largely remain static. Not unexpectedly, horticulture will continue to grow as a major force in the primary sector as kiwifruit, wine, apple and pears lift exports from the present $4.9b to $6.3b by 2020. Also of note is the prediction that kiwifruit exports will hit the magical $2 billion mark in 2020.
Mair says this highlights again the strength of our primary industries and the benefits of our diversified primary sector. But he warns that lower economic growth in trade partners may create headwinds for NZ primary industry export growth.
Mair adds that demand from China and an increase in wood available for harvest are expected to help forestry exports reach $5.3b in 2017 and exceed $6.0b by 2020.
The report states that NZ faces challenges in some markets. These include stagnating EU economies, lower-than-expected growth in the US and a mixed performance in emerging markets. Other issues of concern are Brexit and the likely cancellation of the TPP.
“It’s pleasing to see the global dairy market rebounding after a difficult few years. The average payout for dairy farmers is now expected to be above break-even for most, and there is continued strong growth for sectors like horticulture, forestry and arable,” Mair says.
The recent East Coast Farming Expo, held over two days at Wairoa, offered an insight into the current state of agriculture on the east of the North Island, at a time when the locals are remembering the second anniversary of Cyclone Gabrielle.
OPINION: At last, a serious effort to better connect farmers and scientists.
An initiative by the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) to connect farmers with scientists is taking off judging by the response at recent regional field days.
Scientists from the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI) are part of an international team working to develop a low-cost diagnostic tool that could significantly improve food crop production in developing countries.
A company growing and processing seaweed with known methane-busting properties at a facility in Bluff is expanding internationally but New Zealand cattle farmers won't be getting the product anytime soon.
Federated Farmers supports a review of the current genetic technology legislation but insists that a farmer’s right to either choose or reject it must be protected.
New Zealand’s top business leaders are urging the US Administration to review “unjustified and discriminatory tariffs” imposed on Kiwi exporters.
New tariffs imposed by President Donald Trump signal an uncertain future, but New Zealand farmers know how to adapt to changing conditions, says Auriga Martin, chief executive of Farm Focus.
A global trade war beckons, which is bad news for a small open economy like New Zealand, warns Mark Smith ASB senior economist.
Carterton's Awakare Farm has long stood as a place where family, tradition and innovation intersect.
Fonterra says the US continues to be an important market for New Zealand dairy and the co-op.
OPINION: At last, a serious effort to better connect farmers and scientists.
OPINION: If you believe Maori Party president John Tamihere’s claim that “nothing dodgy” occurred at Manurewa Marae during the last…
