Thursday, 03 May 2012 11:55

Farmers likely to revise budgets

Written by 

With gloomy trade news almost daily, farmers are likely to revise their farm budgets downwards. Given pastoral agriculture spends around $13 billion on goods and services each year, this has implications for both the provincial and national economy.

"It's no secret while primary export volumes have increased, commodity prices are in retreat," says Bruce Wills, Federated Farmers President and economics and commerce spokesperson.

"The current export climate still has Europe in a bad way. America remains bad, though slightly less bad of late, but demand from key Asian economies has weakened and this includes China.

"The picture out of Australia isn't much rosier. Aside from Western Australia most state economies are either in or tiptoeing their way around recession.

"While some say we shouldn't have all of our blocks of butter in the dairy basket, whatever we export and wherever it goes, we face the same tough international environment. It applies equally to hi-tech and tourism as much as it does to wool.

"Compared to last year, I'm getting around $40 less for a heavy prime lamb. I now expect my farm income will be down 20 percent and I shudder to think what would have happened if we hadn't had a wet summer.

"The New Zealand dollar isn't doing exporters any favours either and I'm at a loss to explain why it hasn't fallen. Economic fundamentals should be driving it lower but despite the gloom, it was over US$0.81 when I last checked.

"Maybe it's because we're one of the 'least bad' economies in the OECD. Whatever the cause, we're hurting and that will be expressed by farmers keeping a close lid on what they spend.

"I know there'll be calls for currency intervention but frankly, that's trying to stop the incoming tide with your hands. We can't take on global markets, but need actions to support exporters.

"Councils must keep their rate and fee increases in check and this applies equally to the Government's spending plans ahead of Budget 2012. We're also keen on planned changes to the Public Finance Act to improve the fiscal discipline of the economy's biggest spender.

"Rather than the blunt use of the Official Cash Rate, we'd prefer the Reserve Bank to selectively take the heat out of sectors by using 'macroprudential tools'. Things like capital adequacy and liquidity policies could, for example, mandate a minimum deposit for home mortgages.

"The priority for farmers will be productive investment and tackling debt to take advantage of stable interest rates. Whatever happens, we expect farmers will recast their farm budgets to an extremely conservative basis," Wills concluded.

More like this

Editorial: Elusive India FTA

OPINION: Without doubt, a priority of the Government this year will be to gain traction on the elusive free trade deal with India.

Tariff risk

OPINION: Some commentators across the ditch reckon the second Trump administration's anticipated trade protectionism, coupled with China's economic fragility, poses a significant risk for Australia's agricultural export industries.

UAE trade deal - a game changer

OPINION: In a landmark move that could reshape New Zealand’s agricultural export landscape, the recently signed Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (CEPA) with the United Arab Emirates opens up unprecedented opportunities for our farming and dairy sectors.

UAE FTA signed

New Zealand’s free trade deal with the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has now been signed.

Featured

Co-op boosts chilled exports to China

Alliance Group has secured greater access for chilled beef exports to China, following approval for two of its processing plants to supply the market.

Expo set to deliver in spades

The countdown is on to be one of the most anticipated events in the sheep and beef industry, the East Coast Farming Expo.

New Summerfruit NZ CEO

Dean Smith has been in the role of CEO of Summerfruit NZ for about four months, having succeeded Kate Hellstrom at the end of September.

FE survey underway

Beef + Lamb NZ wants farmers to complete a survey that will shed light on the financial toll of facial eczema (FE) at the farm level.

National

Good season for apples

Brydon Nisbet, the president of Hawke's Bay Fruit Growers Federation, says the mood of growers in Hawke's Bay is quite…

Good times return

Following several years of pain, farmers and growers are facing a decent upswing in commodity prices, say economists.

Machinery & Products

Loosening soil without fuss

Distributed in New Zealand by Carrfields, Grange Farm Machinery is based in the Holderness region of East Yorkshire – an…

JCB unveils new models

The first of the UK’s agricultural trade shows was recently held at the NEC Centre in Birmingham.

» Latest Print Issues Online

The Hound

Ruth reckons

OPINION: Ruth Richardson, architect of the 1991 ‘Mother of all Budgets’ and the economic reforms dubbed ‘Ruthanasia’, added her two…

Veg, no meat?

OPINION: Why do vegans and others opposed to eating meat try to convince others that a plant based diet is…

» Connect with Rural News

» eNewsletter

Subscribe to our weekly newsletter