Monday, 17 December 2012 09:10

Dairy market to tighten

Written by 

New Zealand milk production has stayed stronger for longer than anticipated, matching the exceptional prior-year comparables will become more difficult beyond Christmas, says Rabobank's quarterly report.


Compared to last year, feed reserves are reduced, milk prices are lower, and the probability of ideal climatic conditions occurring two years in a row is very small, the report says.


Many New Zealand farmers are also entering the second half of the season with below-average soil moisture levels, making pasture growth susceptible to any dry spells.
Rabobank says the slow recovery in international dairy prices that started in August 2012 continues through Q4, but failed to regain strong legs.
Upward pressure on prices was created in part by the first contraction in milk supply in export regions since early 2010.


The fact that this contraction failed to generate a stronger rise in prices suggest that consumption was weaker than anticipated and key buyers have accumulated solid forward coverage.
Milk production growth in key export regions is expected to continue to fall below prior-year levels through the first half of 2013, the report says.


While current buyer inventories will provide temporary protection from supply shortages, the market will inevitably tighten further if there is even a modest improvement in demand for imports from key buying regions – which appears highly likely.


But the timing and vigour of the market peak has likely been pushed back and will be softened by a weaker economic outlook than envisaged three months ago.

More like this

Featured

Dr Mike Joy says sorry, escapes censure

Academic Dr Mike Joy and his employer, Victoria University of Wellington have apologised for his comments suggesting that dairy industry CEOs should be hanged for contributing towards nitrate poisoning of waterways.

People-first philosophy pays off

The team meeting at the Culverden Hotel was relaxed and open, despite being in the middle of calving when stress levels are at peak levels, especially in bitterly cold and wet conditions like today.

Farmer anger over Joy's social media post

A comment by outspoken academic Dr Mike Joy suggesting that dairy industry leaders should be hanged for nitrate contamination of drinking/groundwater has enraged farmers.

From Nelson to Dairy Research: Amy Toughey’s Journey

Driven by a lifelong passion for animals, Amy Toughey's journey from juggling three jobs with full-time study to working on cutting-edge dairy research trials shows what happens when hard work meets opportunity - and she's only just getting started.

National

Machinery & Products

» Latest Print Issues Online

The Hound

Faking it

OPINION: Demand for red meat is booming, while it seems the heyday of plant-based protein is well past its 'best…

M.I.A.

OPINION: The previous government spent too much during the Covid-19 pandemic, despite warnings from officials, according to a briefing released…

» Connect with Rural News

» eNewsletter

Subscribe to our weekly newsletter