Atípico
Jordan Hogg always had a hankering to make his own wines, pushing boundaries and "showcasing another side of Marlborough".
NZWinegrower asked this year’s Young Winemaker and Young Viticulturist what they thought the industry would look like by 2032.
JORDAN HOGG – Winemaker
How large do you see the NZ Wine industry being in terms of size (hectares) by the time we get to 2032?
There will be ups and downs in the next 16 years - resulting in periods of rapid expansion and times of little planting. My blurry crystal ball says a total area of 45,000 hectares.
Where will our largest market be by that time?
The USA, followed by a continuingly growing and more adventurous middle class in China not far behind.
Will there be a major varietal change during that period? If so what will those changes be? If not, why not?
There will be a more even spread of varieties. Marlborough will have reached close to its total plantable area. Due to this, new plantings of other varieties will have overtaken new plantings of Sauvignon Blanc. The New Zealand wine regions that have thrived in the 16 years will be focused on developing sub regionality. The most famous sub regions will be becoming renowned down to the vineyard and block level.
What is the biggest threat facing the industry moving forward?
Changing market preferences that don’t match the varieties we currently produce. From a biosecurity point of view - the Brown Marmorated Stink Bug. Edwin Massey had a seminar at Bragato that showed the potential damage to all horticultural industries is huge, along with the added risk the insects may taint wine.
What is our greatest advantage?
The image of our wines overseas and our ability to consistently meet those high expectations. We are seen as clean and green, exotic and produce exciting wines to match these characters.
Will climate change impact on wine styles here and/or will it throw up new un-thought of wine regions?
Yes, but in what timeframe? Every 0.1 degree average shift matters, as well as changing weather patterns. It could bring in new regions and force existing regions to change in terms of wine style or even different varieties. How fast any climate change happens will dictate how hard it will be to adapt.
Technology wise – what would you expect to see in the winery and vineyard by 2032?
There will be great possibilities for precision viticulture using improved GPS, computer and imaging technology. Robotic technology may be advanced enough to undertake complex tasks such as pruning and self-driving technology may begin to replace tractor drivers. New lab technology will be available and affordable - allowing grapes and juice to be profiled for a huge range of aromatic precursors and so forth. Many genetically modified yeasts will be available and there will be much debate whether they will be allowed or not.
How different will the winery and vineyard be compared with now?
Most herbicides and insecticides will have been banned under SWNZ in the mid 2020’s due to consumer and public pressure and a recommitment to keep our green image. There will be more tools available for winemakers – but greater knowledge and experience will allow more confidence to step back from manipulating wines.
Where do you think you will be and what will you be doing in 2032?
I see my long term future in New Zealand – hopefully as a winemaker crafting interesting and well regarded wines.
CAMERON PRICE – Viticulturist
How large do you see the NZ Wine industry being in terms of size (hectares) by the time we get to 2032?
How much more suitable land should be the question, and will we have the market demand so not to create over demand.
So I’d say not that much more than where we stand today maybe 15% more in area.
Where will our largest market be by that time?
China.
Will there be a major varietal change during that period? If so what will those changes be. If not, why not?
That will be a lot of Sauvignon Blanc to pull out, it will have to see a shift in the overseas market’s taste.
What is the biggest threat facing the industry moving forward?
Labour shortages in skilled areas as our work force ages, horticulture isn’t at the top of school leavers career plans.
What is our greatest advantage?
Our isolation from the rest of the world in terms of biosecurity threats.
Will climate change impact on wine styles here and/or will it throw up new un-thought of wine regions?
Yes, from a vineyard point of view we are going to have to look at the drought resistant root stocks as our temperature increases and rainfall decreases. Let’s think we have to be making these changes now as it’s only 16 years from now. And some of our top producing vineyards are older than 16 years currently.
Technology wise – what would you expect to see in the winery and vineyard by 2032?
Machinery will become more refined but that’s not to say it will be the end of operators because I believe you can’t beat the skill of an experienced operator over a computer.
How different will the winery and vineyard be compared with now?
16 years older.
Where do you think you will be and what will you be doing in 2032?
That will make me 42, I’d still like to be living in Hawke’s Bay, managing a group of vineyards and continuing to learn and produce high quality fruit.ν
