Major shakeup for the NZ science system
The government has announced a major restructuring of the country's seven crown research institutes (CRIs), which will see them merged into three public research organisations (PROs).
Near normal rainfall is likely for other regions. Late-summer soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be below normal or normal in the east of the North Island, and near normal in all other regions of New Zealand.
January-March temperatures are likely to be near average or below average in the west of the North Island, and near average in all other regions. Sea surface temperatures around New Zealand are expected to remain close to average overall over the late-summer period.
For this tropical cyclone season (November – April), the risk of an ex-tropical cyclone approaching New Zealand is expected to be near normal. On average, one ex-tropical cyclone nears New Zealand each year.
In the central North Island, Taranaki, Wanganui, Manawatu and Wellington January-March temperatures are equally likely to be near average or below average. Rainfall, soil moisture levels and river flows are all likely to be in the near normal range for the season as a whole.
In Gisborne, Hawke's Bay and the Wairarapa seasonal temperatures are likely to be in the near average range. Late summer rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be below normal or near normal for this time of year.
In Nelson, Marlborough and Buller late summer temperatures are likely to be near average. Seasonal rainfall totals, soil moisture levels, and river flows are also all expected to be in the near normal range.
In the West Coast, Alps and foothills, inland Otago and Southland, late summer temperatures are likely to be near average. Seasonal rainfall totals are equally likely to be in the near normal or above normal ranges. January-March soil moisture levels and river flows are likely to be in the normal range.
In coastal Canterbury and east Otago, January-March temperatures are likely to be near average. Seasonal rainfall, soil moisture levels and river flows are all likely to be in the near normal range.
Background
The equatorial Pacific Ocean as a whole reflects ENSO-neutral conditions (neither El Nino nor La Nina), although the Southern Oscillation Index for December dropped to -0.8. The 3-month SOI (October-December 2012) is -0.1.
International guidance indicates that the tropical Pacific Ocean is very likely to remain neutral over the next three months (January-March). All the 10 dynamical models and five statistical models monitored by NIWA forecast ENSO-neutral SST anomalies for January-March 2013 and also for the following April-June season.
