Gut feeling or common sense
OPINION: Land use change is to the fore (again) because of headlines indicating the potential for growing rice, expansion of dairying in some regions, and ongoing concerns about carbon farming.
Rowarth says holding the line on food quality, which includes safety, will make New Zealand animal protein highly desired. “China is likely to remain a major destination, but other countries will also be interested,” she told Rural News.
Rowarth was commenting on a report released last week by PricewaterhouseCoopers (PwC) that says New Zealand’s future lies with China despite a slowdown in growth. PwC forecasts China among the fastest growing economies to 2050 and says New Zealand’s trade deal offers more promise.
Rowarth says New Zealand has an educated farmer base and enviable resources. “Playing with a straight bat’ will build trust and keep our reputation as honest players/producers with other countries,” she says.
PwC economics director Chris Money says New Zealand’s future truly lies with China and its forecasts reinforce the importance of New Zealand’s focus on Pacific Rim trade deals.
“Currently, China is equal with the US in purchasing power parity (US$17 billion each) but by 2050, China’s GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms will treble to US$60 billion, which is 25% higher than the US, and more than three times the combined GDP (in PPP terms) of the EU.
“Trade between the fastest growing countries presents opportunities for New Zealand as a transit point for goods and services by air and sea. Links between South America and China, Indonesia and India present significant opportunities for us as a trans-shipment destination,” says Money.
India has the potential to sustain its higher growth rate for longer and become a US$10 trillion economy by about 2020 in purchasing power (PPP) terms, or about 2035 at market exchange rates. But this relies on India making sustained progress on infrastructure investment, institutional reforms and boosting education levels among the whole population.
“The importance of New Zealand’s free trade discussions with India are underlined by this forecast as the fastest growing of our largest trading partners and set to become the second largest economy in the world by 2050,” says Money.
The report presents long-term projections of potential GDP growth up to 2050 for 32 of the largest economies, covering 84% of total global GDP and indicates that the world economy is projected to grow at an average of just over 3% per annum from 2014-50 – doubling in size by 2037 and nearly tripling by 2050. But there’s likely to be a slowdown in global growth after 2020, as the rate of expansion in China and some other major emerging economies moderates to a more sustainable long-term rate, and as working age population growth slows in many large economies.
Report projections
- China will clearly be the largest economy by 2030, but its growth rate is likely to revert to the global average in the long run
- India could challenge US for second place by 2050
- Indonesia, Mexico and Nigeria could push UK and France out of top 10
- Philippines, Vietnam and Malaysia are also set to be notable risers
- Colombia and Poland will grow more strongly to 2050 than Brazil and Russia.
