Tuesday, 15 September 2026 09:55

NZIF Warns Rushed ETS Changes Could Hurt Forest Investment

Written by  Nigel Malthus
NZIF says unnecessary changes to New Zealand’s Emissions Trading Scheme will seriously erode investor confidence. NZIF says unnecessary changes to New Zealand’s Emissions Trading Scheme will seriously erode investor confidence.

The New Zealand Institute of Forestry (NZIF) says unnecessary changes to New Zealand’s Emissions Trading Scheme (NZ ETS) will seriously erode investor confidence and result in significant reductions in forest planting rates.

NZIF president Adrian Loo was responding to the report “Adrift: What future does the Emissions Trading Scheme have?” in which the Parliamentary Commissioner for the Environment, Simon Upton, called for a major rethink of forestry’s role in the ETS.

Loo said the report raised legitimate questions about the balance between reducing gross emissions and removing carbon through forests, but proposals to halt new forestry registrations or progressively remove forestry from the scheme were premature.

“New Zealand needs faster reductions in gross emissions, but this does not diminish the importance of carbon removals. We need both.

“The challenge is to design a system which recognises their different roles and provides credible incentives for each.”

Loo said the report’s modelled scenarios were projections rather than predictions and depended heavily on assumptions about future carbon prices, planting rates and forest owner behaviour.

“A model looking ahead to 2075 can help us understand possible risks, but it cannot tell us with certainty how markets, technology, landowners or governments will behave over the next 50 years. Major policy decisions should not be based on one set of modelled scenarios.”

Loo said the report also overlooked the difference between government auction units and forestry units.

“Government auction units are permissions to emit. Forestry units recognise carbon which forests have actually removed from the atmosphere. Treating both forms of supply as though they have the same climate effect overlooks a fundamental difference.”

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