Global beef trade set for growth driven by Asia – Rabobank report
Global beef trade is expected to grow steadily over the next five years, driven by increasing demand from Asia and strategic export expansions by South American countries.
The report - Capitalising on tailwinds through to 2025 - says tight global beef supplies and steady demand for New Zealand beef are expected to support healthy farm gate prices through to 2025.
However, there are a number of key challenges that the industry must address - including the need to decrease greenhouse gas emissions and to reduce bobby calf processing requirements.
Rabobank agricultural analyst Genevieve Steven believes new ideas and strategic investment will be required by the industry to find solutions to these challenges and to extract more value from the beef supply chain.
The report notes that the NZ beef industry has grown exports by 94,000 tonnes or 21% over the last five years and enjoyed "a golden run of pricing during this period".
Growing demand from China has been the key factor that has fuelled an increase in New Zealand beef exports, Steven says.
"In 2017, China accounted for just 20% of New Zealand beef exports, but since then, we've seen export volumes increase markedly and China is now New Zealand's largest export market for beef accounting for close to 40% of total exports in 2021," she says.
The outlook for New Zealand beef exports over soming seasons remains strong, despite the prospect of increased competition from Australia and Brazil.
"Although beef production in Australia and Brazil is forecast to increase, we expect global beef production will remain tight through to 2025 due to the re-build of the US beef cow herd," Steven notes.
"We also expect consumption of ground beef in the US will grow as consumers trade down to lower-value beef cuts, in response to economic tightening.
"And this will play into New Zealand's favour as we're a key supplier of lean trimmings into the US for ground beef production."
Steven anticipates that tight global beef supplies and increasing global consumption of ground beef will keep demand for New Zealand beef strong and ensure farmgate beef pricing.
