Tuesday, 05 December 2023 14:55

A tale of two hemispheres

Written by  Leo Argent
High prices and contracting production in the Northern Hemisphere are opposed by lower prices and increasing production in the Southern Hemisphere. High prices and contracting production in the Northern Hemisphere are opposed by lower prices and increasing production in the Southern Hemisphere.

Global beef markets continue to be a story of two contrasting parts.

High prices and contracting production in the Northern Hemisphere are opposed by lower prices and increasing production in the Southern Hemisphere.

That's according to Rabobank's latest Beef Quarterly Report, which shows North American cattle prices continue to track at high levels, with steady US cattle prices and a 3% quarterly rise on Canadian prices.

Meanwhile, prices remain soft in Southern Hemisphere countries, with a dramatic 28% fall in quarterly Australian cattle prices.

Meanwhile, New Zealand and Brazil also saw prices fall, but by smaller amounts.

While Southern Hemisphere production continues to increase volumes, these have not been enough to offset the declines in Europe and the US. 

Rabobank says global beef production is on track to decline by 1% in 2023 and 2024 production from major producing countries is expected to remain relatively constant to expected 2023 volumes.

The report also says while overall production and consumption in 2024 is expected to remain steady.

“The US will be one of the big movers. After shifting to a net-import position in 2023, we expect production to contract a further 4.5%, while consumption drops 3% in 2024, increasing the net-import position.”

“Australia and Mexico will be the major beneficiaries, with increases in production and exports expected for both countries. New Zealand, another large supplier to the US – particularly in lean trimmings – will also benefit, but restricted production and export growth will limit the gains.”

Rabobank expects the ongoing slow global economic recovery will limit consumers’ expenditure and likely curb their spending on beef next year, as any markets – particularly in Asian countries – did not experience the growth in consumption expected as economies recovered from Covid-19.

“Indications from China are that the type of products in demand is changing, with more attention being paid to value-for-money products and less to premium ones. This consumer caution may be supported initially by reduced volumes of more expensive North American beef and increased volumes of Australian and South American beef,” the report adds.

“However, when production in the US contracts to the point where it exerts upward price pressure on global beef prices, we may see some pushback from global beef consumers. It is possible that 2024 will see margins in beef supply chains being squeezed to manage higher prices and accommodate the consumer.”

More like this

Dairy buoyant

The Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey found farmers' expectations for their own business operations had also improved, with the net reading on this measure lifting to +37% from +19% previously.

Farmer confidence flowing back

Confidence is flowing back into the farming sector on the back of higher dairy and meat prices, easing interest rates and a more farmer-friendly regulatory environment.

Feds, banks lock horns

Major rural lenders are welcoming a call by farmers for the Commerce Commission to investigate their net-zero emissions target.

B+LNZ refutes UK animal welfare criticism

Beef + Lamb New Zealand (B+LNZ) says recent criticism from the UK’s Secretary of State for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs regarding New Zealand’s animal welfare standards are unfounded.

Rabobank cuts loan rate

Rabobank New Zealand will reduce the variable base rate on its rural loans by 0.5%, effective from 16 October 2024.

Featured

Dairy buoyant

The Rabobank Rural Confidence Survey found farmers' expectations for their own business operations had also improved, with the net reading on this measure lifting to +37% from +19% previously.

Farmer confidence flowing back

Confidence is flowing back into the farming sector on the back of higher dairy and meat prices, easing interest rates and a more farmer-friendly regulatory environment.

National

Machinery & Products

GEA launches robotic milkers

Milking technology provider GEA Farm Technologies is introducing its first automatic milking system (AMS) in New Zealand.

More front hoppers

German seeding specialists Horsch have announced a new 1600- litre double-tank option that will join its current Partner FT single…

Origin Ag clocks up 20 years

With roots dating back to 2004, Origin Ag was formed as a co-operative business model that removed the traditional distributor,…

» Latest Print Issues Online

The Hound

Dark ages

OPINION: Before we all let The Green Party have at it with their 'bold' emissions reduction plan, the Hound thought…

Rhymes with?

OPINION: The Feds' latest banking survey shows that bankers are even less popular with farmers than they used to be,…

» Connect with Rural News

» eNewsletter

Subscribe to our weekly newsletter