Ex-National MP: Coup Attempt Could Cost Luxon the Election

Speaking to Rural News on the condition of anonymity, the former MP described the coup attempt as "untimely and unseemly" and an event that could damage National's chances at the November election.

The former MP noted that National has undeniably done a lot of good things for the primary sector during the past three years. They pointed to the RMA reforms and changes to other regulations that are of real benefit to the sector, which they add is looking in pretty good shape at present.

"But if there was a change of government back to a Labour-led coalition, these gains would likely be lost. Labour and the Greens would quickly move to nullify the changes to the RMA and other environmental regulations," they say.

They believe that voters in the right-leaning camp who don't like Luxon, may turn to ACT or NZ First, but are unlikely to switch to Labour. What is uncertain is what the significant number of undecided voters may do.

Few believe Luxon's claim that the present caucus is right behind him. The faces of those Ministers standing with him at his 'victory' press conference after the meeting was telling.

According to our source, there is a strong belief that the caucus is not united and that the dissatisfaction with Luxon's leadership will just bubble on until someone can organise a proper group. They also claim that when it comes to politics, Luxon is an amateur and that being a CEO doesn't always equate to being a good leader or chairman.

In the opinion of our informant, Luxon is prone to making mistake after mistake and that only time will tell just exactly what went on in that caucus meeting.

"Chris Penk was a very capable minister and a nice guy and I am sorry to see that he's now leaving politics," they say.

And one final word on the other parties - in particular NZ First. Despite all words being said about not working with Labour, they believe that if push came to shove, Winston Peters may go with Labour if only to keep the Greens out of office.

Unnecessary Distraction

Rural News also spoke to a former high profile farming leader who agreed that the attempted coup was "an unnecessary distraction", but that would not alter their support for Christopher Luxon.

They blamed the media for putting a slant on the story and claimed that they are out to get Luxon. They do admit that while Luxon lacks charisma, he has credibility and is thee right person to lead the country.

They believe that the worst outcome for National will be that some voters will change their allegiance to ACT.

Finally, the dissatisfaction within the National Party of Christopher Luxon's performance and leadership cannot be dismissed by a single press conference with him saying we are all together again. The public aren't that easily fooled. His premiership is on the line, but what is unclear is what voters actually think.

The polls are showing dissatisfaction with both Labour and National and bouncing around the various minor parties. What people are saying to pollsters now may not accurately reflect which way they will vote on election day. This would be the hardest election to call in more than half a century.