Super El Niño Raises Odds of Dry, Windy Growing Season
With a very strong El Niño increasing the odds of a dry and windy winegrowing season in New Zealand’s eastern regions, the industry should take measures to prepare.
She says in her region, the Waikato, the dry weather has made calving a bit easier, but some late frosts have slowed down pasture growth, which she adds is a bit concerning. Overall, she says calving is likely to be better than last year because it’s been drier and pastures haven’t been damaged like they were a year ago when it was wet.
Hanging over all dairy farmers is the unknown impact of El Nino. Brown says some modelling suggests it could be more severe than past El Nino years, and if that’s the case, it will bring windy, dry conditions in eastern regions – impacting feed availability and causing heat stress for stock.
“But in the west, you might get high rainfall and there is a risk of flooding and damage to infrastructure. If the weather is bad, there is the risk of power being lost and farmers need to have a plan to deal with this eventuality,” she says.
Brown says DairyNZ is busy communicating with dairy farmers, telling them to be prepared and to understand the risks in their area and closely monitoring the weather conditions. She says farmers are being encouraged to start planning now around feed supply going into the autumn.
She says there are good resources on the DairyNZ website and this information will be updated throughout the season.
The other message that has gone out to all farmers is making sure that nitrogen is applied strategically, noting that soil temperatures must be right when it is applied.
Finally, Brown says she’s cautiously optimistic and although the milk price is a bit down on last at the start of the season, it’s still a strong milk price.
“But our costs have all gone up and so our margins continue to be eroded, so from now on its about good budgeting and good planning,” she says.
Like other farming leaders, Brown says no one really knows what’s going to happen next globally, so there is still some uncertainty on farms. She says the best advice is to have a plan and seek the right advice and to be aware that there is a lot of information and support available.
