B+LNZ Forecasts Lower Prices, But Still a Strong Season

That’s what Beef+Lamb NZ is predicting in its new season outlook and all due it seems to the rising NZ dollar, higher input costs and the risk of what the El Nino weather system will bring.

Farm Profit Before Tax is forecast to average $267,200, down 20% on the provisional record season average of $335,500 in 2025-26, but still well above the five-year average.

But it’s not all bad news. B+LNZ chair Kate Acland says that even with forecast decreases the new season returns promise to be very good.

“They are still well above the 2024-25 season and above the five-year average,” she says.

Acland says recent prices provided a much-needed turnaround and stronger cashflow through 2025‑26 have allowed many farm businesses to repay debt, catch up on fertiliser programmes, complete deferred repairs and maintenance, and reinvest in the farm business after several low‑profit years.

Looking ahead, she says global red meat supply remains tight and demand from key markets continues to support strong prices. But she adds that slower global economic growth, cost-of-living pressures and a stronger NZ dollar are expected to limit further price increases in the coming season.

Acland notes that events in international markets could negatively impact NZ, such as the US investigation into lamb imports and volatility in global beef export flows caused by China’s beef safeguard.

“The conflict in the Middle East is leading to higher fuel and fertiliser costs and farmers also need to consider the risk that the forecast dry El Niño conditions could inhibit pasture growth, leading to lower liveweight gains, lighter carcass weights and less production,” she says.

Acland says these factors will all impact farm margins and farmers need to focus on building financial resilience, improving productivity, and planning for both climate‑related shocks and market downturns.