I will consider this scenario under several topics; to guess about the viticulture, we must guess about the wines first, and their market.
The wines of 2053
Sauvignon Blanc is still the flagship of New Zealand. After all, other wine regions of the world have taken over 200 years to achieve permanent “classical” status, so why might not New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc still be establishing a niche? Especially since the wines have continued to be distinctive, and even improve?
There have been other casualties along the way. Traditional Hawke’s Bay vineyards have lost their reputation for Bordeaux blends, and now boast more Rhone styles. Pinot Noir has continued its expansion of the first decade of 2000, and is now well established as another “classical” wine from New Zealand. Though the low lands of Central Otago are now considered too hot for premium Pinot Noir, and new regions are being evaluated.
There are two wine styles continuing to emerge. The first is sparkling wines, prompted by an awareness in the 2020’s decade that New Zealand must develop a proper sparkling wine sector if it is to claim status as the world’s leading innovative cool climate producer. New vineyard regions for sparkling wines have been established at the tip of the South Island, and some at even higher elevations in both islands than ever thought possible. This product style represents now half the New Zealand exports.
New Zealand was quick to maybe lead a world trend to Albariño, now the number one white varietal wine which became prominent in the 2030s. Albariño from Spain has easily overtaken Chardonnay from France over the last 30 years. Albariño was found to tick all of the boxes to emerge as the number one white variety in the world; the name was easy to pronounce, the wines were excellent, even grown in warmer climates than New Zealand, but some wine critics claim that the Albariño wines from New Zealand are among the best in the world.
The vines of 2053
We can consider the vineyards of 2053 under categories of where they are grown (place), how the vines themselves have changed (plant) and how they are grown (procedure).
The place
By the 2030s, few consumers in the world noticed that the conspicuous labelling “New Zealand Marlborough Sauvignon Blanc” had gradually changed to “New Zealand Sauvignon Blanc”. Vineyards no longer dominated the Marlborough landscape as they did in the 2010s; now they were less concentrated in one region, and extended to the south coast of the South Island. Stewart Island is establishing its own reputation for Sauvignon Blanc. And this is due to temperature increase of only 1°C, what of the future? At least New Zealand has not chosen to deny that wine style and quality has changed along with climate, as have most of the European wine regions. Adaptation has been the message of the 2030’s.
The plant
What a revelation in the 2010’s when scientists pointed out the benefits to vineyard productivity and wine quality to be had from improving variety germplasm. No longer would the New Zealand wine sector be constrained by the genetics of importations made in the 1980s and 1990s, from the rest of the world. Now, with its own patented procedure for creating clones, and even rapid early testing, other countries were wanting to obtain clones from New Zealand! Imagine New Zealand with the world best collection of Sauvignon Blanc and Pinot Noir clones! And, these could be selected for new vineyard regions as the vineyards migrated further south.
The major disease scares of the period were in the two decades commencing 2015, being spreading leaf roll disease in hard-to-spot-symptomatic white varieties, and trunk disease. Both were treatable by replanting, but sadly it took over a decade for nurserymen to modify their practices to provide trunk disease free plants. And, coincidentally, local research was thrust into international fame as New Zealand was the first country to solve this world-wide problem.
The procedure
There have been surprisingly few changes to viticultural methods during this century. Sure, the sprayer technology is improved, with less pesticides impacting the environment as was the case previously, and tractors are more comfortable, but many things are the same. Of course, there was the big revolution of the 2020s brought on by social unrest in Marlborough. A leading company dictated to its vineyard managers that if any more jobs were to be lost in the interest of “cutting costs”, it was to be their own! So the emphasis was to be on increasing labour efficiency, not labour replacement, at least for essential jobs like winter pruning. Imagine more rather than less hand pruning, when it was realised that well trained pruners could increase profitability through better yield and wine quality. One kiwi viticulturist gained prominence last year (2052) by stating that “Thank goodness we did not follow the path of the Aussies. They cut the costs of vineyard production so much that they have no vineyards left, and no wine industry”.
There have been few changes that affect the appearance of vineyards. Posts of wood or steel still support wires and vines. Of course, another mini-revolution of the 2010’s led to the now universal adoption of old-fashioned “canopy management”. Those companies and growers that refused to take advantage of increased profitability from divided canopies, both in terms of improved yield and quality, failed to survive the second and third global financial crises which devastated all forms of inefficient agriculture in New Zealand.
There is reported to be only one “organic” grower left in the country. The famous court battles of the 2030’s led to questioning whether such procedures were indeed more beneficial to the environment, and the nutrient-stressed organic vineyards were recognised to reduce wine quality, and disease levels were a problem for neighbouring vineyards.
The future
It is fitting to conclude this article with a consideration of the next 40 years, to 2093. By now warming over 2010 levels has increased from the 1°C of 2050 to 2.5 °C.
Scientists have been desperately trying to manipulate Sauvignon Blanc and Pinot Noir vines to be more heat tolerant, but not to change them so much that they lose their wine identity, and names.
The last straw, according to some scientists, was when Winegrowers New Zealand pulled the funding from their research to spend on marketing…. ν
