$10/kgMS Milk Price Looks Possible as Powder Prices Climb
A farmgate milk price of $10/kgMS this season is firming up as milk powder prices soar and the New Zealand dollar weakens.
The cost of running a New Zealand farm is now 27% higher than it was before Covid, putting sustained pressure on profitability acrfoss the sector, according to new ANZ research.
The finding comes from ANZ's latest Agri Insights report, which analysed the financial performance of more than 4000 dairy, red meat, kiwifruit, arable and pipfruit customers, comparing the 2020-24 period with the previous five years.
It found that while general inflation had stabilised in recent times, cost increases within the farming system have become structural, meaning farms now need to lift productivity just to stand still.
Lorraine Mapu, ANZ NZ's managing director of business and agri, said events playing out in the Middle East are a reminder that global uncertainty - from geopolitical tensions to fuel supply and input volatility - add another layer of complexity for farmers.
"While we're not currently receiving customer requests seeking specific support for issues linked to the conflict, we're staying close to our customers and remain focused on supporting them through any emerging challenges," Mapu says.
"What this research shows, though, is that the businesses best placed to navigate that uncertainty are the ones with strong fundamentals, good visibility over their costs, and the ability to keep investing in productivity through the cycle.
"Farming is now a higher-cost business than it was five years ago, and that's not something that unwinds when inflation cools.
"The standout performers aren't necessarily expanding or taking bigger risks - they're the ones who know their systems well, time their spending carefully, and keep finding small productivity gains year after year."
The report shows the gap between average farms and the top performers continues to widen, pointing to significant untapped productivity potential across the sector.
When dairy manager Miriam Lauridsen learned the farm, she was joining held weekly health and safety meetings, she initially thought that was “a bit over the top”. Experiencing that culture changed her mind.
Nominations are open for the 2027 Fonterra Dairy Woman of the Year Award.
Keeping up with pasture moisture demands is likely to be the key challenge for dairy farmers during this season’s El Niño weather pattern, says Blue Skies Weather & Climate Services meteorologist Tony Trewinnard.
Farmers have until the end of this week to help shape DairyNZ’s future focus.
Wayne McNee, chief executive of AgriZeroNZ, has resigned and will leave the organisation on 15 January 2027.
The New Zealand dairy sector set a record in the 2025/26 season, producing more than two billion kilograms of milksolids for the first time.