Trade balance with the US a saving grace
New Zealand is so far escaping the unpredictable vagaries of President Donald Trump's trade policies by the skin of its teeth.
New Zealand farmer confidence and spending intentions jumped to record levels in the second quarter of this year, buoyed by improved commodity prices.
Rabobank says its second quarterly survey for the year, completed in June, shows net farmer confidence rose to 54% from 27% in the March quarter, hitting the highest level since the survey began in 2003.
Spending intentions were higher in all farm sectors: 40% of farmers expect to spend more in the next 12 months, up from 31% last quarter and also at a record high.
Farmers in all agricultural sectors were more positive about the outlook for the agricultural economy in the June quarter, with 71% citing improved commodity prices as a key reason.
Especially so dairy farmers, 77% of whom cited better commodity prices, while sheep and beef producers were at 66%.
“Buoyancy in the pastoral sectors is underpinned by strengthened farmgate returns across the industries,” says Rabobank NZ general manager for country banking Hayley Moynihan.
“Sheep and beef farmgate prices continue to hold steady at strong levels for beef and higher than first expected for lamb; and lower supply from NZ and other key export regions will underpin good returns over the coming months.
“Dairy commodity prices continue to strengthen thanks to steady demand and lower supply and this has been recently reflected in strong opening price signals for the new 2017-18 season by many dairy processors.”
At least half the farmers surveyed were anticipating the performance of their own farm business to improve over the next 12 months, lifting net confidence to 47%, the highest reading since late 2013.
Sheep and beef farmers recorded the biggest rise in confidence in their own farm business performance, jumping to a net 41% from 2% last quarter, while dairy farmer confidence lifted to a net 61% from 54% and horticulturalists eased to 38% from 44%.
“It’s unusual to have farmers from all NZ’s key agricultural sectors so confident about the outlook for their own business’s performance and this bodes well for the rural [and national] economy,” Moynihan added.
Among the regular exhibitors at last month’s South Island Agricultural Field Days, the one that arguably takes the most intensive preparation every time is the PGG Wrightson Seeds site.
Two high producing Canterbury dairy farmers are moving to blended stockfeed supplements fed in-shed for a number of reasons, not the least of which is to boost protein levels, which they can’t achieve through pasture under the region’s nitrogen limit of 190kg/ha.
Buoyed by strong forecasts for milk prices and a renewed demand for dairy assets, the South Island rural real estate market has begun the year with positive momentum, according to Colliers.
The six young cattle breeders participating in the inaugural Holstein Friesian NZ young breeder development programme have completed their first event of the year.
New Zealand feed producers are being encouraged to boost staff training to maintain efficiency and product quality.
OPINION: The world is bracing for a trade war between the two biggest economies.