NZ Milk Price Could Hit $10/kgMS as Global Supply Eases
A 'tsunami' of milk from key exporting countries is winding down and this may be good news for New Zealand dairy farmers.
That's according to Rabobank's recently released Q3 Global Beef Quarterly report. It says reductions in production volumes in Europe, New Zealand, Brazil and the US contributed to a 2% fall in global beef production for the first half of 2025, helping to increase global cattle prices through Q2.
While Australia and China saw beef production increases of 10% and 4% for the first half of the year, RaboResearch senior agricultural analyst Jen Corkran said global production was still expected to reduce 3% for 2025.
"Northern hemisphere countries continue to stand out at record prices, but US and Canada prices have moderated in recent weeks, suggesting some of the heat is slightly reducing this market.
"Meanwhile, prices in southern hemisphere countries continue to increase. Reduced volumes in the North American market, plus a slight improvement in the Chinese market, have generated stronger demand for southern hemisphere beef suppliers - and we're continuing to see this strong demand flow through to cattle prices."
Brazilian beef exports to the US through July 2025 were 94% higher than the same period last year, partly due to the latest round of US tariffs - announced July 31 but not implemented until August 6 - encouraging Brazilian exporters to frontload volumes before the deadline which brought total tariffs on Brazilian beef to 76.4%.
Nearly a month after, shipments remain strong in a year-over-year comparison through to the fourth week of August 2025, remaining stable even after the tariffs took effect.
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Corkran said projections of rising live cattle prices in Brazil may explain the current appetite from American importers for Brazilian beef.
"US imports from Brazil may drop an estimated 10,000 metric tonnes (mt) to 15,000mt per month as we progress through the remainder of the year. Coincidentally or not, the tariffs came into effect at the end of the US domestic peak consumption period from May to August. This timing may also see reduced demand from US buyers of Brazilian exports."
"August saw the announcement of a 15% tariff on NZ beef entering the US. As Australian beef continues to face only a 10% tariff, this poses a competitive challenge. Nonetheless, strong US demand for NZ lean trimmings supports a positive outlook for farmgate prices in the second half of 2025."
The US remains New Zealand's leading market, absorbing 40% of total volume whilst China accounted for 24%. Canada saw a 54% Q2 year-on-year volume increase to 11,345mt.
Following what was a steady Q1 performance, New Zealand's Q2 beef production saw volume dropping 16.6% year-on-year to 177,0000mt. Given limited cattle availability across the country, Corkran said the decline aligns with expectations.
"NZ Meat Board data shows national cattle slaughter fell 15% in head count year-on-year, totalling just over 700,000 head comparted to more than 840,000 head in Q2 2024.
"The breakdown reveals a 14% drop in bull beef, a 15% decline in cull cow numbers and a significant 20% reduction in steer slaughter."
Looking ahead, Q3 production is forecast to reach just under 118,000mt, representing a further 5% decline. Corkran said that RaboResearch maintains its full-year outlook of a 4% to 5% year-on-year drop in total beef slaughter numbers.
"Final production volumes will hinge on pasture conditions through spring and average carcass weights during the lower-volume quarter period. New Zealand is expected to process fewer bobby calves this year, which will increase beef production in two years' time."
In line with reduced production, New Zealand's total beef export volume fell 11% year-on-year Q2 2025, to 129,670 metric tons. Despite this, export values increased 7% to $1.432 billion, driven by strong global demand and firmer pricing.
The quarter also included a new record average export value of $11.17/kg Free On Board (FOB) in April, followed by a new $11.20/kg FOB in July.
