Agri sector to lead economic recovery
OPINION: Over the past month, people up and down the country have been asking me what I think is in store for the Agri sector.
Recent guidance from kiwifruit marketer Zespri points to improving orchard gate returns across all varieties.
Export prices for apples should track higher as demand in key markets continues to outpace still-constrained supply out of New Zealand.
Westpac industry economist Paul Clark points out that strong demand will support export prices for kiwifruit over 2025.
According to Zespri, strong demand in key markets in Asia, the EU and the US, increased production yields and quality improvements, and a supportive New Zealand dollar will support orchard gate returns over the coming year.
Clark notes that at this early stage of the season, Zespri guidance on orchard gate returns for 2025/26 has a lower end of the range that sits just under the 2024/25 forecast, while the upper end shows significant gains, irrespective of varietal.
"The big area of focus is likely to be on RubyRed Kiwifruit, which commands a higher return per tray than other varietals," he says.
However, RubyRed vines are still relatively immature, so yields tend to be a bit lower than for other varietals.
Apple export prices should remain elevated on constrained supply, reflecting the impact of Cyclone Gabrielle on output levels in the Hawke's Bay - current levels are only around where they were in 2022, and are well-off pre-Covid levels.
"That is likely to remain the case with new plantings still to reach maturity," says Clark.
"Average export prices continue to track higher, as demand in key Asian and European markets keeps ahead of production. Favourable growing conditions through spring and summer have reportedly resulted in high-quality fruit. With supply likely to remain constrained, we think prices will remain elevated.
Zespri chief executive Jason Te Brake says positive early season conditions have supported a strong start to this season's harvest with a total crop of more than 205 million trays, or 738,000 tonnes, now expected.
"Our industry has packed more fruit at this time of the season than ever before and our first charter vessels have departed successfully, which is important as we look to get off to a fast start and return strong value back to our growers.
"Our initial guidance also anticipates improvements in our fruit size and foreign exchange positions this season, with downside risks considered including provision for quality costs should fruit quality deteriorate, softer market conditions and reduced trade stemming from ongoing global geopolitical uncertainty.
"The feedback we've received from customers across Europe, China and North America over recent weeks is that there's strong demand for Zespri Kiwifruit, and our teams are looking forward to selling this season's fruit as more arrives in market in the coming weeks."
The Zespri board has approved the commercial production of 170 hectares of RubyRed Kiwifruit in Italy over the next two years, supporting efforts to continue to strengthen the Zespri brand through the availability of a red variety in Europe as part of Zespri's 12-month supply strategy.
"It's an exciting time for Zespri RubyRed Kiwifruit, with nearly all of our 3 million trays of New Zealand-grown fruit now packed, with its berry-like taste available in a number of new markets this season, including the US," says Te Brake.
"Growing RubyRed Kiwifruit in Italy will support efforts to deliver on Zespri's 12-month supply strategy, help us build our brand and maintain shelf space and retail partnerships to support New Zealand grower returns, particularly given the increasingly competitive red category."
The commercialisation of RubyRed Kiwifruit in Italy is covered by Zespri's existing approval to plant up to 1,000ha of new variety offshore as approved by growers via producer vote in 2019. This is the first time Zespri has used this allocation.
