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Tuesday, 25 November 2025 09:19

Fonterra shaves 50c off forecast milk price

Written by  Sudesh Kissun
Fonterra has also increased its forecast milk collections for the 2025/26 season from 1,525 million kgMS to 1,545 million kgMS. Fonterra has also increased its forecast milk collections for the 2025/26 season from 1,525 million kgMS to 1,545 million kgMS.

Fonterra has dropped its forecast milk price mid-point by 50c as a surge in global milk production is putting downward pressure on commodity prices.

The co-op has narrowed the forecast farmgate milk price range from $9-$11/kgMS to $9/-$10/kgMS, with the midpoint changing from $10/kgMS to $9.50/kgMS.  

Fonterra has also increased its forecast milk collections for the 2025/26 season from 1,525 million kgMS to 1,545 million kgMS.  

Chief executive Miles Hurrell says they’ve seen strong milk flows this season, both here in New Zealand and other milk producing nations. 

“This increase in milk supply has put downward pressure on global commodity prices, with seven consecutive price drops in recent Global Dairy Trade events. As a result, we have narrowed the forecast Farmgate Milk Price range for the season and adjusted our midpoint. 

Fonterra started the season with a wide forecast range - of $8/kgMS-$11/kgMS.

Hurrel says the new midpoint of $9.50/is in the middle of this range and remains a strong forecast for the season.   

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“We continue to be focused on maximising returns for farmer shareholders through both the farmgate milk price and earnings. This includes through building strong relationships with customers who value our products, utilising price risk management tools, and optimising our product mix,” says Hurrell.

Last week's GDT auction recorded the seventh straight drop in the price index - the 3% drop, the second largest among the seven drops. Whole milk powder prices, primary determinant of Fonterra's farmgate milk price, has seen six consecutive drops. Six months ago, WMP price was around US$4374/MT; last week's overnight auction saw the WMP price drop to US$3452/MT. 

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