Trade balance with the US a saving grace
New Zealand is so far escaping the unpredictable vagaries of President Donald Trump's trade policies by the skin of its teeth.
The global agribusiness banking specialist says with the United Kingdom and the EU-27 nowadays only contributing a relatively small share of New Zealand food and agricultural (F&A) exports – 4.3% and 8.8% respectively by value – the direct trade implications of the UK's historic decision to leave the European Union would be limited for the agricultural sector as a whole.
However, the report notes, for some sectors – particularly sheepmeat, wool, fruit and wine – the direct export exposure is more significant.
Rabobank senior analyst Marc Soccio says these sectors in particular would be exposed to any sustained negative impact Brexit had on the UK economy and household incomes, as well as price inflation due to adverse currency moves.
