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NIWA is predicting average to above average temperatures for early winter, May to July, for most of the country – except for "near average" in the east of the South Island.
Early winter rainfall is likely to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, and near normal in other regions.
Similarly, soil moisture levels are likely to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island and near normal in other regions.
Despite the overall pattern of near or above average temperatures, frosts typical of winter will occur from time to time.
Early winter rainfall is likely to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, and near normal in other regions.
Soil moisture levels are likely to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island and near normal in other regions.
River flows are likely to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, normal or below normal in the west of both islands, and near normal in the north and east of the South Island.
Regional predictions for the next three months:
Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty: Early winter temperatures are equally likely to be near average or above average. Seasonal rainfall totals, soil moisture levels, and river flows are all equally likely to be in the near normal or above normal range.
Central North Island, Taranaki, Wanganui, Manawatu, Wellington: Seasonal temperatures are equally likely to be near average or above average. Early winter rainfall totals and soil moisture levels are likely to be near normal for the three month season as a whole, while river flows are likely to be near normal or below normal.
Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa: Seasonal temperatures are equally likely to be in the near average or above average range. Early winter rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are all equally likely to be in the near normal or above normal range.
Nelson, Marlborough, Buller: Early winter temperatures are equally likely to be near average or above average. Seasonal rainfall totals, river flows, and soil moisture levels are all likely to be in the normal range.
West Coast, Alps and foothills, inland Otago, Southland: Early winter temperatures are equally likely to be near average or above average. Seasonal rainfall totals and soil moisture levels are likely to be in the near normal range, while river flows are equally likely to be in the near normal or below normal range.
Coastal Canterbury, east Otago: Seasonal temperatures are likely to be near average. Early winter rainfall totals, river flows, and soil moisture levels are likely to be in the normal range.
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Rural Communities Minister Mark Patterson says the present weather conditions remain challenging for farmers.
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OPINION: NIWA has long weathered complaints about alleged stifling of competition in forecasting, and more recently, claims of lack of transparency by the Crown-owned entity - spurred by its refusal to release information under the OIA about its conduct around Cyclone Gabrielle and the Hawke's Bay flooding.
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