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Income growth, not population, will impact food consumption, says Thomas Hertel, professor of agricultural economics at Purdue University, Indiana.
He told the Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society (AARES) conference that population growth in poor countries will not lead to greater demand for food.
Instead income growth in countries with developing economies will drive demand. “Population won’t be the challenge; income growth is more important.”
He also stressed there was enough food but how it was distributed was the main issue. Preventing food loss will also be important. Hertel says per capita food loss in Europe and North America is 280-300kg/year: in Sub-Saharan Africa and South/Southeast Asia it is 120-170 kg/year.
“The total per capita production of edible parts of food for human consumption is, in Europe and North-America, about 900kg/year and, in sub-Saharan Africa and South/Southeast Asia, 460kg/year.
“Per capita food wasted by consumers in Europe and North-America is 95-115 kg/year, while this figure in sub-Saharan Africa and South/Southeast Asia is only 6-11 kg/year. “
However, it is difficult to model consumer behavior. Given that 30-40% of food loss occurs in developing countries, investigating relation between food loss and nutrition outcomes is also important.”– Sudesh Kissun
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