Editorial: Happy days return

Latest data reflects strong global demand for beef and lamb and tightening supply, with average farm profit forecast to climb to $287,600 per farm in 2025–26 – nearly double last season’s result.

Real farm profit before tax (FPBT), accounting for inflation, is expected to sit about 80% above the decade average.

And when farmers do well, the rural economy does well.

Red meat farmers are expected to generate $8.5 billion on farm this year and spend $16 million every day on goods and services, largely in their local communities.

At a regional level, on the East Coast FPBT is forecast to double to an average $330,300 and in Northland, Waikato and Bay of Plenty, it is set to rise 73% to $324,500.

As Federated Farmers meat and wool chair Richard Dawkins notes, the extra revenue will flow straight into rural communities.

Farmers will spend on day-to-day running costs but also on catching up with delayed maintenance on things like extra fencing, weed control, pasture renewal or fertiliser.

That will keep the money circulating through support industries and rural communities.

And market fundamentals are sound with strong demand for beef into North America and for lamb into the European Union and the United Kingdom.

Demand and pricing in China remain softer, but overall, the global picture is far more positive than it has been in recent years.

Wool prices are also showing signs of meaningful recovery after several challenging years, although much of the lift is being driven by lower stocks globally.

Overall, farmers are riding a real high.

Strong returns across sheep, beef, and wool, along with a favourable climate, sensible policies, and decent interest rates; Dawkins describes this combination as rare.

While there’s still a degree of uncertainty with geopolitical risks on many red meat farmers’ minds, this is a time to celebrate the rebound in meat prices and profits.