Green but not much grass!
Dairy farmers in the lower North Island are working on protecting next season, according to Federated Farmers dairy chair Richard McIntyre, who farms just north of the Horowhenua township of Levin.
Of the 1,200 surveyed, 47% consider current economic conditions to be bad — down 55.6 points since January when a net 7.8% considered conditions to be good. A net 80% expect general economic conditions to get worse — up 16.9 points for the same period.
The survey conducted last month showed production expectations have dropped into negative territory for the first time since its inception in 2009.
The message from farmers to the Government is clear, ‘slow down on new regulations’.
The ACT Party rightly points out that the Labour Government has been a non-stop shop of on-farm compliance.
They have set off an avalanche of regulations: freshwater reforms, winter grazing rules, Zero Carbon Act, limiting migrant workers, Significant Natural Areas, taxes on utes…the list goes on.
There’s no doubt that farmers have taken a hammering from this government.
This is reflected by the top concerns in the survey being climate change policy and the ETS, regulation and compliance costs, input costs, debt and interest rates, and biosecurity amid concerns about foot-and-mouth disease.
Federated Farmers national president Andrew Hoggard says the frustration around all the regulation, the uncertainty, the hectic pace and nature of it, is driving the mood as well.
He wants the Government to slow down and work out what they can achieve, not what they want to achieve.
The Government needs to bring people along with them. They must listen to the concerns and ensure that the regulatory push is not all driven by one minister’s wishes.
The survey did have some positives.
Despite the slide in confidence, farmers’ profitability expectations haven’t taken as big a hit as might have been predicted.
A net 55% of respondents said they are currently making a profit – six points down on the January survey. Looking out over the next 12 months, a net 53.1% of respondents expect their profitability to decline, up 11.9% on the January 2022 survey when a net 41.2% expected it to decline.
This is perhaps to be expected given the squeeze from higher input costs and high commodity prices retreating.
But what’s worrying is that for the first time in the survey’s history it has recorded a net negative score for production expectations.
The Government can do its bit to help right now: a clear signal around the regulatory process, to show that they are listening, would be a good start.
