FAO Warns Strait of Hormuz Fertilizer Crisis Could Tighten Global Food Supplies Into 2027

Ministerial Meeting of the MED9++ Countries on “Supporting Food Security and Access to Fertilizers” in Rome, Qu said the current disruptions are affecting far more than global energy markets.

“We meet at a moment of profound strain,” he told ministers and senior representatives from more than 40 countries and organizations. “This is not only a geopolitical crisis, but also a disruption at the core of the global agrifood system.”

Strait of Hormuz Disruptions Impacting Fertiliser Markets

Qu highlighted the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, which under normal conditions carries substantial shares of globally traded oil, liquefied natural gas, sulfur and fertilizers.

Disruptions to maritime flows through the corridor, he warned, are already tightening fertilizer markets and increasing energy costs, with potentially severe consequences for agricultural production and food prices.

According to Qu, agriculture remains highly vulnerable because fertilizer application is tied to strict crop calendars that cannot easily be delayed.

“Agriculture operates within a crop calendar that cannot be postponed,” he said. “Fertilizers must be applied at specific moments in the crop cycle. If they do not arrive on time, yields are reduced, regardless of what happens later.”

Delayed Fertiliser Deliveries Threaten Future Harvests

Qu added that a delay of even a few weeks forces farmers to reduce fertilizer use or abandon application altogether.

He explained that the impacts seen today are not limited to current prices, but are transmitted forward into the next harvests, which would tighten food supplies into the last half of 2026 and 2027.

Qu noted that the impacts are particularly concerning because they coincide with critical planting and fertilization periods across major producing regions.

Import-Dependent Countries Among the Most Vulnerable

Import-dependent countries in Africa, Asia and parts of the Middle East are among the most exposed, especially those already facing acute food insecurity, economic fragility or climate-related shocks.

Qu emphasized that no country is insulated from the crisis and outlined three priority areas for coordinated action.

FAO Outlines Immediate and Long-Term Priorities

In the Immediate Term

Qu stressed the importance of keeping supply chains functioning by facilitating alternative trade routes, avoiding export restrictions, supporting farmers’ access to agricultural inputs and protecting humanitarian supply chains.

Over the Medium Term

Qu called for strengthened regional coordination, diversification of fertilizer and energy sources, and targeted support for the most vulnerable economies.

In the Long-Term

Qu underscored the need for structural transformation to reduce dependence on concentrated supply routes and fossil fuel-based inputs, including through investments in sustainable agriculture, renewable energy, innovative fertilizer solutions and stronger storage and logistics systems.

MED9++ Meeting Focused on Food Security Cooperation

Qu welcomed the MED9++ initiative to strengthen cooperation on fertilizer access and food security, noting that the platform aligns with FAO’s Strategic Framework and its vision of the Four Betters: Better Production, Better Nutrition, a Better Environment and a Better Life, leaving no one behind.

He reaffirmed FAO’s commitment to continue providing technical analysis, policy support and convening capacity to help countries address the evolving challenges facing global agrifood systems.

The Ministerial Meeting of the MED9++ Countries on “Supporting Food Security and Access to Fertilizers” brought together ministers and senior representatives from over 40 Mediterranean and partner countries and organizations to discuss the implications of disruptions to global energy, fertilizer and food supply chains, and to strengthen regional cooperation on food security and agrifood system resilience.