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THE CHANCES of an El Nino event developing over spring appear to be lessening, says NIWA.
However there's still a 70% chance of an El Nino developing through to the end of summer 2015 – but this is based on international modelling through to the end of June. It does not take account of the rapid changes observed in July.
"The behaviour of the atmosphere over the next month or two will be critical to whether an El Niño event initiates or not," NIWA says.
August-October temperatures are most likely (50% chance) to be above average for the east of the North Island, and likely (40-45%) to be average or above average for all remaining regions of New Zealand. Cold snaps and frosts can still be expected in some parts of the country as winter advances into spring.
August-October rainfall is equally likely (40% chance) to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, and normal or below normal in the west of the North Island and in the north of the South Island. In remaining South Island regions, seasonal rainfall is most likely (45%) to be in the near-normal range.
August– October river flows and soil moisture levels are about equally likely (35-40 % chance) to be normal or above normal in the north and east of the North Island, and most likely (45%) to be below normal in the west of the North Island. In the South Island, river flows and soil moisture levels are likely (40% chance) to be near normal in the west, but about equally likely (35-40 % chance) to be normal or below normal in the north and east.
August-October regional predictions
Northland, Auckland, Waikato, Bay of Plenty
• Temperatures are likely (40-45% chance) to be average or above average.
• Rainfall totals are equally likely (40% chance) to be in the normal or above normal range.
• Soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely (40-35% chance) to be in the near normal or above normal range.
Central North Island, Taranaki, Wanganui, Manawatu, Wellington
• Temperatures are likely (40-45% chance) to be average or above average.
• Rainfall totals are equally likely (40% chance) to be in the normal or below normal range.
• Soil moisture levels and river flows are most likely (45% chance) to be in the below normal range.
Gisborne, Hawke's Bay, Wairarapa
• Temperatures are most likely (50% chance) to be in the above average range.
• Rainfall totals are equally likely (40% chance) to be in the normal or above normal range.
• Soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely (40-35% chance) to be in the near normal or above normal range.
Nelson, Marlborough, Buller
• Temperatures are likely (40-45% chance) to be in the average or above average range.
• Rainfall totals, soil moisture levels and river flows are all equally likely (40% chance) to be in the normal or below normal range.
West Coast, Alps and foothills, inland Otago, Southland
• Temperatures are equally likely (40% chance) to be in the near average or above average range.
• Rainfall totals are most likely (45% chance) to be in the near normal range.
• Soil moisture levels and river flows are likely (40% chance) to be in the near normal range.
Coastal Canterbury, east Otago
• Temperatures are equally likely (40% chance) to be in the near average or above average range.
• Rainfall totals are most likely (45% chance) to be in the near normal range.
• Soil moisture levels and river flows are about equally likely (35-40% chance) to be in the near normal or below normal range.
With adverse weather set to rain down on the Top of the South, the Bay of Plenty and parts of Northland, Agriculture Minister Todd McClay says farmers, foresters, and growers need to prepare for possible challenges.
Rural Communities Minister Mark Patterson says the present weather conditions remain challenging for farmers.
While it has been a great spring and summer for farmers, soil moisture levels in the Waikato are now plummeting as the dry February starts to bite.
The government has announced a major restructuring of the country's seven crown research institutes (CRIs), which will see them merged into three public research organisations (PROs).
Merging MetService and NIWA is the right thing to do, but independent weather forecaster Phil Duncan of WeatherWatch says he isn’t sure a merged entity will boost rural weather forecasting.
Fresh produce grower and exporter T&G Global has overturned last year’s dismal performance by reporting a half year net profit of $1.7 million.
One of New Zealand’s largest fertiliser plants could be forced to shut down for four months as uncertainty looms over gas supply.
Federated Farmers North Canterbury president Bex Green says two public meetings held this week should have made it loud and clear that rural families and businesses are concerned about proposed staffing changes at NZ Police.
The Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) is consulting on a proposal to ban weedkillers containing chlorthal-dimethyl (DCPA).
August 6 marks Farm Worker Appreciation Day, a moment to recognise the dedication and hard mahi of dairy farm workers across Aotearoa - and DairyNZ is taking the opportunity to celebrate the skilled teams working on its two research farms.
OPINION: The Government has been seeking industry feedback on its proposed amendments to a range of Resource Management Act (RMA) national direction instruments.
