Signs of a change in fortunes for red meat

In their final report on how the sector has performed in the past six months to the end of December 2024, and the outlook for the future, Beef + Lamb NZ chief executive Alan Thomson and Meat Industry Association (MIA) chief executive Sirma Karapeeva talked about "green shoots" appearing.

They say that while global markets remain challenging, there are signs of a change in fortunes for the sector in the year ahead.

Thomson and Karapeeva say that while last year there were weak prices for sheepmeat, caused by the economic problems in China and increased competition from Australia, there are signs that prices will firm in the coming months. They also point to the complex dynamics of the global meat trade.

"We continue to see ongoing demand for NZ red meat but lower production volumes in the middle of the year have meant there has been less meat available for export, which in turn has affected overall export returns," they say.

Another factor in the equation outlined in the report is that 1.1 million fewer lambs have been tailed/docked in 2022/24 compared to 2022/23 - down 5.2%, a much bigger drop than earlier predicted.

The effect of this is that South Island processing for the first quarter of the season is expected to be down by 22%. However, in the North Island, lamb processing is expected to be up 2.4%. These figures reflect the fact the conditions for lambing were better in the North Island and worse in the South Island where farmers there were hit by rain and snow in the middle of lambing.

The report carries some commentary about some of the key happenings in the previous six months. The Government gets a big 'thank you' for its moves to address the issue of large tracts of productive sheep and beef farmland being lost to carbon farming, and pressing the pause button on freshwater farm plans.

The report draws attention to B+LNZ's report on dealing with greenhouse gases which noted that NZ was out of step with how most other jurisdictions in the world deal with the issue. They want government to consider 'practical approaches' to dealing with the problem.

On the positive side, it calls out the value for our meat exporters of the UK/NZ FTA and the new deals with the UAE and the Gulf Cooperation Council.

And finally, and not surprisingly, the red meat sector is closely monitoring developments in the US as the Trump administration takes office. During his campaign Trump made references to increasing trade barriers, but both Thomson and Karapeeva say they are supporting the NZ government approach of 'wait and see'.