From the Chair: Outlook for our sector

Rising costs have eroded profitability, while domestic and export sales slowed in 2024 due to tough economic conditions. Geopolitical shifts are adding further uncertainty, with the threat of protectionism in key markets.

Industry stocks are also high, despite the small crop of less than 400,000 tonnes last year. Large vintages in 2022 and 2023 (both exceeding 500,000 tonnes), exacerbated by slower sales in 2024, mean inventories remain higher than anticipated. Together these issues are contributing to an increasingly uncertain and unpredictable outlook.

Vintage 2025

Favourable weather has set the stage for a high-quality 2025 harvest. That is good news for the reputation of New Zealand wine and the long-term health of the sector. Over the past year, industry sales have equated to approximately 430,000 tonnes of grapes. A 2025 vintage below this level may reduce stock levels, while a higher yield could increase them unless sales rise. Importantly, I must emphasise that production levels are a matter of each individual business to decide, as New Zealand Winegrowers (NZW) does not (and cannot) get involved in how much the industry chooses to produce each year.

New Zealand wine's reputation remains strong

Despite the challenging times, market data confirms New Zealand wine maintains a strong consumer reputation based on quality, distinctive and sustainable wines. This data supports a positive long-term outlook, as it provides confidence our producers are well-positioned to capitalise on key trends in our major markets.

Current Initiatives

NZW currently is investing in a range of initiatives designed to support members and the industry, including: 

• The Pinot Noir New Zealand 2025 Conference, which brought key media and influencers to New Zealand. Our guests travelled the length and breadth of Aotearoa, revelling in a fully immersive Kiwi wine experience. The coverage from these visitors has been amazing and is growing by the day. Now we are starting to plan for the International Sauvignon Blanc Celebration 2027.
• We are in close dialogue with the government, and our international colleagues, on the possibility of tariffs being imposed on exports to the United States. We will continue to provide updates to members as developments unfold.
• We are progressing discussions with the Ministry for Primary Industries to support New Zealand wines in the US, and are also exploring opportunities in new markets in Asia. Our team supported the New Zealand presence at Prowein in Germany, we will be attending Vinexpo Asia in Singapore, and have our China roadshow in May.
• Bragato Research Institute is busy in the vineyards, the research winery, and in the labs, bringing to conclusion another year's research work before reporting to members at this year's Grape Days.
• We are about to release the Sustainability Report 2025, which celebrates the sustainability progress being made by growers and wineries. This is an important step in maintaining and growing access to key markets.

We are anticipating a challenging and busy 2025. Best wishes for a successful vintage.

Fabian Yukich is Chair of New Zealand Winegrowers.